Match Analysis: Piera Rodriguez vs Ketlen Souza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-02
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Game Overview
The women's strawweight bout features Piera Rodriguez (10-2) versus Ketlen Souza (15-5), both orthodox fighters standing 5'3" and fighting at 115 lbs. Rodriguez has a slight reach disadvantage but superior defense and efficiency in significant strikes. Souza is more aggressive and lands more significant strikes per minute but takes more damage as well.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rodriguez has a 10-2 record with strong defensive metrics, absorbing 2.63 significant strikes per minute and preventing 57% of strikes. Souza, with a 15-5 record, lands 4.92 significant strikes per minute but also takes 4.46, showing a high-risk style.
- No prior bouts between Rodriguez and Souza, so no direct matchup history.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
- Fight is at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no clear travel or altitude advantage; both fighters appear equally acclimated.
- Rodriguez aims to continue her momentum and prove dominance after strong performances. Souza's aggressive style and higher volume striking suggest a motivation to impose pressure and secure a decisive win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Piera Rodriguez -225, Ketlen Souza +185 | Piera Rodriguez | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Piera Rodriguez -3.5 (120), Ketlen Souza +3.5 (-165) | Piera Rodriguez -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-375), Under 2.5 (270) | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Piera Rodriguez -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 166% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 166% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 61.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Piera Rodriguez to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Piera Rodriguez wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds