The Philadelphia Phillies face the Atlanta Braves in a key late-season MLB matchup at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies hold clear advantage in recent form and standings, aiming to consolidate their NL East lead, while the Braves are under pressure to halt a losing streak.
Key Factors to Consider
Philadelphia Phillies boast a strong 79-57 record, winning 3 straight games in this series with solid pitching performances. Their offense averages 5.6 runs per game recently. Braves have a weaker 61-75 record and are struggling to break out of a losing streak.
Phillies lead head-to-head series historically 114-98, with 74 home wins. Recent matchup on August 31 resulted in 3-2 Phillies win. Phillies average 4.24 runs per home game compared to Braves' 4.51 runs on the road.
No significant injuries reported for either squad that would impact starting pitching or core lineup for this game.
Playing at the Phillies' home park favors the Phillies due to familiarity and crowd support. Weather conditions are stable with no indications of rain or wind impacting play.
Phillies highly motivated to secure division lead and playoff positioning; Braves motivated to salvage season and stop losing streak but less incentive compared to Phillies.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies -154, Atlanta Braves +130
Philadelphia Phillies
★★★★☆ 78%
Spread
Phillies -1.5 +136, Braves +1.5 -164
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under
Over 8.5 -122, Under 8.5 +100
Under 8.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies -1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 8.5 20%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Phillies to win moneyline, cover -1.5 run spread, and the game to go under 8.5 total runs.
The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies in a pivotal late August MLB matchup. Mets are slight moneyline favorites at home with a spread of -1.5 and the total set at 8.5 runs.
Key Factors to Consider
Philadelphia leads the NL East with a 76-56 record, boasting solid offensive metrics (.257 BA, .327 OBP, 625 runs scored) and a 3.83 ERA pitching staff. Mets are 71-61, performing well as -154 favorites (59.8% win rate) but have struggled against the spread (60-65). Phillies have had mixed recent form, dropping 3 of last 5 but winning series prior.
Phillies took first two games in the series by scores 13-3 and 6-5 but Mets have home advantage. Taijuan Walker (Phillies) has struggled historically vs Mets (1-4 with 4.86 ERA), though currently pitching well in August. Mets' starter McLean has limited but quality career innings vs Phillies.
No significant injuries reported impacting either side’s starting pitchers or key offensive players.
Game played outdoors at Citi Field, normal weather conditions expected. No weather or ballpark factors heavily favoring either side.
Phillies lead division and playoff motivation strong. Mets fighting to climb standings, motivated to defend home turf and rebound after recent losses in the series.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Mets -154 / Phillies +130
Mets
★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread
Mets -1.5 +138 / Phillies +1.5 -166
Phillies +1.5
★★★☆☆ 64%
Over/under
Over 8.5 -120 / Under 8.5 -102
Under 8.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
New York Mets -6%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 8.5 13%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York Mets moneyline, Phillies +1.5 spread, Under 8.5 runs total