Match Analysis: Marcus McGhee vs Petr Yan – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-26
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi
Game Overview
This bantamweight UFC main card fight features Petr Yan, a switch fighter with a record of 18-5, against Marcus McGhee, an orthodox fighter holding a 10-1 record. Yan is a precise and aggressive striker known for a high volume and efficiency of significant strikes, while McGhee offers superior reach and slightly higher strike output but with lower accuracy. Both fighters are in prime physical condition with no notable injuries reported. The matchup is expected to be competitive with Yan as the heavy favorite due to experience and defensive capabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Petr Yan averages 5.11 significant strikes landed per minute with a 54% accuracy and defends 58% of strikes; Marcus McGhee lands more strikes per minute at 6.06 but only connects at 48%, defending 64%. Yan has fought and won more high-level fights, showing consistency in performance and adaptation.
- No prior encounters between Yan and McGhee, making this a fresh matchup where stylistic analysis is critical.
- No current injuries reported for either fighter, both entering fight in peak condition.
- Fight held at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, a neutral venue with no home advantage, but Yan has previously performed well internationally. No weather or travel concerns impacting performance.
- Yan is motivated to reestablish dominance in the bantamweight division following recent high-profile bouts. McGhee aims to make a statement with a major upset to accelerate his rising career trajectory.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marcus_McGhee: +300, Petr_Yan: -380 | Petr Yan | ★★★★☆ 76% |
| Spread | Marcus_McGhee +3.5: -105, Petr_Yan -3.5: -125 | Petr Yan -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -330, Under 2.5: +240 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Petr Yan -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 104% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 104% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Petr Yan to win by decision
Predicted Score: Petr Yan wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds