Match Analysis: Denis Frimpong vs Peter Gabal – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-20
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: OKTAGON 76, Festhalle, Frankfurt

Game Overview

Lightweight main card bout between Denis Frimpong and Peter Gabal at OKTAGON 76, featuring two rising contenders with comparable records but differing styles and recent performances.

Key Factors to Consider

• Denis Frimpong is 7-1 recently, displaying strong finishing ability with several TKOs, including a recent win over Gabal himself. Peter Gabal is 7-3 with a less consistent trajectory and susceptibility to pressure fighting.
• Frimpong has previously defeated Gabal via TKO in Round 3 at the same promotion, establishing a clear dominance in their direct matchup.
• No reported injuries or medical concerns affecting either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Fight held in Frankfurt’s Festhalle under OKTAGON MMA banner. Frimpong trains with high-level partners (including Shem Rock), indicating solid preparation and motivation.
• Frimpong aims to solidify his status as a top lightweight contender and is highly motivated by recent successes and the desire to be 'undeniable'. Gabal seeks redemption but lacks momentum from recent fights.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-150 (Frimpong), +130 (Gabal)	Denis Frimpong	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	-1.5 rounds Frimpong -130, +1.5 rounds Gabal +110	Frimpong -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds -120, Under 2.5 rounds +100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Denis Frimpong via TKO/KO

Predicted Score: Denis Frimpong wins by TKO/KO in Round 3

Match Analysis: Peter Gabal vs Elias Jakobi – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: BMW Park, Munich, Germany

Game Overview

The Lightweight main card fight between Peter Gabal and Elias Jakobi at OKTAGON MMA 71 is scheduled for May 17, 2025, at 16:00 UTC. Both fighters are seasoned competitors in the Lightweight division, with no prior head-to-head meetings. The bout takes place in Munich, Germany, at BMW Park. The fight promises a competitive matchup given their similar physical stats and experience in MMA.

Key Factors to Consider

• Peter Gabal and Elias Jakobi bring strong performances into this match, with both fighters having shown solid striking and grappling skills in their recent fights. Gabal has a slight edge in striking accuracy and aggressiveness, while Jakobi is known for his resilience and grappling transitions. No recent major declines in form have been recorded for either fighter.
• No previous head-to-head matches exist between Peter Gabal and Elias Jakobi, making this encounter their first direct competition, which adds unpredictability to the outcome.
• No known injuries have been reported from either fighter leading up to the bout. Both have made weight successfully (Gabal: 70.8 kg, Jakobi: 70.7 kg) indicating good fight readiness.
• The fight is taking place in Munich, Germany, potentially giving Elias Jakobi, who is from Germany, a slight home crowd advantage. The event is part of the prestigious OKTAGON MMA, adding significant motivation for both fighters to perform well on a major stage.
• Both fighters have strong motivation as this bout could significantly enhance their standing in the Lightweight division at OKTAGON MMA. Jakobi fighting in his home country might feel extra pressure and motivation to win, while Gabal will aim to upset the home favorite and climb the rankings.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Elias Jakobi: -110, Peter Gabal: -120	Peter Gabal	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	Peter Gabal: -1.5, Elias Jakobi: +1.5	Peter Gabal to cover -1.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over: -115, Under: -105	Under (fights in this division and matchup tend to be tactical with fewer rounds going to decision)	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Elias Jakobi -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Elias Jakobi at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the balanced skill sets, lack of head-to-head data, and home advantage for Elias Jakobi, the fight is expected to be closely contested. However, Peter Gabal’s slight edge in striking and consistency in previous performances leads to a narrow predicted victory for Gabal.

Predicted Score: Peter Gabal wins by decision or late round stoppage