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Penrith Panthers vs. Melbourne Storm Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-14
  • Time: 9:50 AM UTC
  • Location: Bankwest Stadium

Game Overview

An evenly matched NRL Round 24 clash between the Penrith Panthers and Melbourne Storm at Bankwest Stadium, with both teams exhibiting strong recent form and playoff motivation.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith holds a 5-game winning streak and sits 6th on the table with 9-7 record, while Melbourne is 3rd with 12-5 and 7 wins in 10 recent games, showing consistent high-level performance.
  • Historically balanced with 9 wins each out of 18 encounters; recent form shows Panthers favored at home supported by a 63% predicted win probability.
  • No significant injury disruptions reported for either side, both squads appear near full strength.
  • Match played at Penrith's home ground, Bankwest Stadium, providing Panthers with a home advantage; weather and pitch conditions expected to be neutral.
  • Both teams are motivated to secure position and momentum ahead of finals, Panthers aiming to strengthen playoff access, Storm pushing top 4 placement.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Penrith -120, Melbourne +108, Draw +1900 Penrith Panthers ★★★☆☆ 63%
Spread Penrith -1.5 (-125), Melbourne +1.5 (-105) Penrith Panthers -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under Over 41.5 (-115), Under 41.5 (-115) Under 41.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers 16%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 41.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Penrith Panthers at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win outright based on home advantage, recent form, and stronger predicted win probability.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 22 – Melbourne Storm 18


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Newcastle Knights vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-08
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: McDonald Jones Stadium

Game Overview

The Newcastle Knights host the Penrith Panthers in a Round 23 NRL match. Panthers enter as strong favourites based on recent form, head-to-head dominance, and superior squad depth.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers display strong recent form with consistent wins, superior fitness, and tactical execution. Newcastle Knights have been competitive but generally fall short against top-tier teams like the Panthers.
  • Historical data and simulations give Panthers around 80% chance to beat the Knights, usually by a moderate margin. Panthers have held dominance in recent matchups, especially at Newcastle's home ground.
  • No critical injury updates indicate significant absences impacting either side, suggesting both squads likely near full strength.
  • Match played at McDonald Jones Stadium favors Knights slightly due to home advantage, but Panthers’ mental and tactical edge likely neutralizes this factor.
  • Panthers motivated to maintain top-tier momentum heading into finals, while Knights aim to challenge but face a tough test against a dominant side.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Newcastle Knights: 305, Penrith Panthers: -400, Draw: 2400 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 80%
Spread Newcastle Knights +12.5: -120, Penrith Panthers -12.5: -110 Newcastle Knights +12.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 44.5: -115, Under 44.5: -115 Under 44.5 ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 44.5 31%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 44.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win by a margin within 1-12 points, in a controlled, tactical match likely scoring below or near total set line.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 24 – Newcastle Knights 18


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Gold Coast Titans vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Gold Coast Titans vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Cbus Super Stadium

Game Overview

The Penrith Panthers enter this Round 22 clash as clear favorites with strong recent form, whereas the Gold Coast Titans struggle near the bottom of the ladder despite a recent morale-boosting win.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Panthers have a 7-game winning streak and sit 5th on the ladder with a 10-7 record, showing strong defense and consistent winning form. Titans are 16th with 5-13, having won only 1 of their last 5 games.
  • In the last 10 matchups, the Panthers dominate with a 9-1 record against the Titans, reinforcing historical superiority.
  • No critical injury updates reported for either side, so full-strength lineups are expected.
  • Match played at Titans' home ground, but their home form is weak (2-6), while Panthers have a decent away record (4-3). Weather and other external factors appear neutral.
  • Panthers are pushing for a top-4 finals spot, adding motivation. Titans are fighting form and position but with low morale overall.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: 3.25, away: 1.23, draw: 25 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 81%
Spread home +12.5: 1.87, away -12.5: 1.87 Penrith Panthers -12.5 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under over 46.5: 1.87, under 46.5: 1.87 Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 67%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 25%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Penrith Panthers will win comfortably, covering the spread and with the total match points expected to stay under 46.5 given the defensive strength and form.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 28 – 14 Gold Coast Titans


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Penrith Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-26
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Game Overview

Penrith Panthers enter as strong favorites against Wests Tigers, with bookmakers heavily pricing a Panthers win. However, statistical models and recent form suggest a closer contest with a likely low scoring, defensive game given wet conditions.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Panthers exhibit strong home performance with structured, clinical play, but Tigers have shown improving form and possess attacking unpredictability. Panthers average a slight edge in attack and defense but the margin is narrower than expected.
  • Panthers have dominated recent meetings, yet the Tigers remain competitive with power rankings close (Panthers 8.83 vs Tigers 10.67) and Tigers capable of challenging defensively.
  • No significant injury news reported that materially impacts either team's core lineup.
  • Match played at CommBank Stadium, a familiar venue to Panthers who treat it as a second home; weather conditions expected wet, favoring a defensive style and potentially lowering scoring.
  • Panthers aim to maintain premiership form while Tigers are motivated to upset a top-tier team and continue demonstrating improvement against strong opponents.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Penrith -420, Wests Tigers 335, Draw 2500 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 82%
Spread Penrith -13.5 (-120), Wests Tigers +13.5 (-110) Penrith Panthers -13.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 46.5 (-125), Under 46.5 (-105) Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers 2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 27%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win outright, cover the -13.5 spread, and the match to total under 46.5 points.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 22 – Wests Tigers 18


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Penrith Panthers vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-18
  • Time: 10:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Stadium Australia, Sydney

Game Overview

The Penrith Panthers face the South Sydney Rabbitohs in a tightly contested NRL match where both teams have shown strong recent form. Penrith, the favorites with a moneyline around -250, have won the majority of recent head-to-head games but recently lost to South Sydney 18-28 on March 27, 2025. The matchup promises high intensity given their rivalry and previous matches.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers show consistent high-level performance with a majority of wins against South Sydney historically (20 wins to 14). Recent form favors Penrith but South Sydney pulled a notable upset in the last meeting.
  • Historically, Penrith leads with 59% win rate in 34 encounters, but South Sydney has won recently, indicating a competitive rivalry that could sway either way.
  • No significant injury reports affecting key players have been identified in available data, suggesting full-strength lineups likely for both teams.
  • The match is played at Stadium Australia, a neutral venue with no apparent external disadvantages for either team. Weather and pitch conditions are assumed normal.
  • South Sydney has extra motivation after their last victory over Penrith, aiming to maintain momentum. Penrith seeks to reassert dominance and avoid consecutive losses, raising competitive stakes.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Penrith Panthers: -250, South Sydney Rabbitohs: +205, Draw: +2300 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Penrith Panthers -8.5: -110, South Sydney Rabbitohs +8.5: -120 Penrith Panthers -8.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 46.5: -115, Under 46.5: -115 Over 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 63%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 46.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 46.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win moneyline, cover the -8.5 spread, and the game to go over 46.5 points.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 28 – 18 South Sydney Rabbitohs


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Parramatta Eels vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-13
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Game Overview

A high-stakes Western Sydney derby between Parramatta Eels and Penrith Panthers, featuring contrasting bookmaker and statistical model views. Panthers enter as strong favorites, but recent form, home advantage, and derby dynamics suggest a tighter contest.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers have been dominant recently, winning their last three matches against Parramatta by narrow margins (1-12 points). Parramatta have a solid home record with 4 wins in 8 games at CommBank Stadium this season, often keeping games close and low scoring.
  • Penrith has a clear edge with recent winning streaks over Parramatta, but margins have been slim. Derby games historically tend to defy form, with both sides capable of grinding out results.
  • No major injuries reported that drastically affect key players from either team, suggesting both sides can field near full-strength lineups.
  • Derby intensity and local rivalry increase unpredictability. Home crowd support for Parramatta is a significant factor, likely boosting their motivation and performance.
  • Parramatta eager to prove themselves against the top-ranked Panthers and capitalize on home advantage. Penrith motivated to maintain dominance and secure premiership points.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Parramatta Eels: 2.4, Penrith Panthers: 1.33, Draw: 23 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Parramatta Eels +9.5: -110, Penrith Panthers -9.5: -120 Parramatta Eels +9.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 45.5: -115, Under 45.5: -115 Under 45.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers -13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 45.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 45.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to narrowly win with a defensive, low-scoring game outcome, but Parramatta Eels represent strong value against the spread due to bookmaker overestimation of Panthers' margin.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 22 – Parramatta Eels 16


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Penrith Panthers vs. Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-26
  • Time: 9:50 AM UTC
  • Location: Penrith Panthers Home Ground

Game Overview

The upcoming NRL match between Penrith Panthers and Canterbury Bulldogs features two teams with contrasting recent performances. The Bulldogs currently lead the league with an 85% win rate (11 wins out of 13 games) and are in strong form with 8 wins in their last 10 games. The Panthers sit in 8th place with a 43% win rate and a mixed recent record. This match is significant for both sides as the Bulldogs aim to consolidate their top position while the Panthers seek to climb up the standings.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Canterbury Bulldogs have been the dominant side this season with 11 wins and only 2 losses, showing consistency and resilience. Penrith Panthers have struggled for consistency with 6 wins and 7 losses, although they have shown improvement with 3 wins in their last 5 games.
  • Historically, Penrith Panthers have a slight edge with 60 wins compared to Canterbury Bulldogs' 49 in 112 overall encounters. In the more recent decade, Panthers won 11 out of 15 matches against Bulldogs, indicating some historical dominance, but current season form favors the Bulldogs.
  • No specific injury updates are provided in the current data; presumed that both teams approach full strength or with minimal impactful absences.
  • The match is played at Penrith's home ground, providing a home advantage for the Panthers. Weather or other environmental factors are not indicated in the data.
  • Canterbury Bulldogs have high motivation to maintain their top position and extend their winning streak, whereas Penrith Panthers are motivated to improve their standings and capitalize on home advantage.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs: -143, Penrith Panthers: 125, Draw: 2100 Canterbury Bulldogs to win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Canterbury Bulldogs: -2.5 -115, Penrith Panthers: +2.5 -115 Canterbury Bulldogs to cover -2.5 spread ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 42.5: -115, Under 42.5: -115 Over 42.5 points total ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs -7%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 42.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 42.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the strong current form and league standing of Canterbury Bulldogs combined with the spread and moneyline odds favoring the Bulldogs, the prediction leans towards a Bulldogs win, though the Panthers' home advantage and historical competitiveness make it a contest worth watching.

Predicted Score: Canterbury Bulldogs 24 – Penrith Panthers 20


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New Zealand Warriors vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-21
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Go Media Stadium

Game Overview

Penrith Panthers, despite being a dominant NRL team in recent seasons, face a challenging schedule with key players backing up from State of Origin commitments and international travel to New Zealand. The Warriors have home ground advantage and a solid following, but the Panthers have a strong roster when at full strength.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Panthers have historically performed better, but recent scheduling (travel and Origin player fatigue) could impact their lineup and performance. The Warriors are well-supported at home and have shown flashes of brilliance, especially against fatigued or understrength opponents.
  • Penrith Panthers have had the upper hand in recent head-to-head matchups, but fixtures at Go Media Stadium have seen the Warriors competitive, especially with home crowd support.
  • No major injuries reported for the Warriors. The Panthers may face squad rotation or fatigue for Origin players, potentially weakening their usual lineup.
  • The Panthers have a quick turnaround post-State of Origin, with international travel to New Zealand, which could affect recovery and preparation. The Warriors have no such distractions and are playing in familiar conditions.
  • Warriors are motivated to capitalize on Panthers’ Origin hangover and travel fatigue. The Panthers will be motivated to maintain their top-tier status, but may be physically and mentally drained.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -435, away: 345, draw: 2500 Lean on Warriors, but value lies with either team if Panthers are understrength. However, given current odds, large underdog price on Panthers is notable. ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread home: -13.5 -120, away: 13.5 -110 Warriors are favourites to cover spread, but Panthers with a plus handicap could be value if their stars play and perform. ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under over: 42.5 -145, under: 42.5 110 Lean to under, as Panthers’ fatigue and travel may slow the pace and lower scoring. ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline New Zealand Warriors 1850%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 42.5 26%

🔥 Best Value Pick: New Zealand Warriors at 1850% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 74% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Despite being underdogs, the Warriors are well-positioned to cover the spread and possibly upset the moneyline due to Panthers' travel and Origin player fatigue. The game is expected to be closer than usual, with the total points likely to stay under the set line.

Predicted Score: Warriors 24 – Panthers 18


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Wests Tigers vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Wests Tigers vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: June 8, 2025
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Game Overview

The Wests Tigers face a tough challenge against the Penrith Panthers in Round 14 of the NRL. The Panthers are historically strong, having won recent matches against the Tigers, while the Tigers seek to improve their performance against a top-tier opponent.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers have shown superior form in previous seasons, with consistent strong performances across their team. Wests Tigers have struggled to match the Panthers' pace and consistency.
  • The Panthers have a favorable head-to-head record, recently defeating the Tigers in their last few encounters.
  • No significant injury updates have been reported for either team, but check for last-minute changes.
  • Weather conditions could impact the game, but no specific weather updates are available. Home advantage might slightly favor the Tigers, but the Panthers' strength often transcends venue.
  • The Panthers are motivated to maintain their position in the league standings, while the Tigers aim to pull off an upset and gain momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Penrith Panthers: -290, Wests Tigers: 230, Draw: 2400 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 80%
Spread Penrith Panthers: -9.5 -115, Wests Tigers: 9.5 -115 Penrith Panthers -9.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 47.5 -115, Under: 47.5 -115 Under 47.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers -13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 47.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Penrith Panthers are likely to win based on their historical dominance and recent form.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 24, Wests Tigers 16


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Penrith Panthers vs. Parramatta Eels Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Penrith Panthers vs Parramatta Eels – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-01
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: CommBank Stadium

Game Overview

Penrith Panthers face Parramatta Eels in a crucial NRL Round 13 clash at CommBank Stadium. Despite their recent struggles, the Panthers have a strong recent record against the Eels, having won 4 of the last 6 matchups. The Eels are struggling defensively, sitting 16th for points conceded, while the Panthers are 12th. Recent matches between these sides have trended high-scoring, with the over hitting in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith, despite being off their premiership form, have shown glimpses of quality against lesser teams and historically perform well against Parramatta. Parramatta are struggling with their defense, ranking last in the competition for points against. Penrith's defense is also below par (12th), indicating both teams might leak points[5].
  • Penrith have won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Parramatta, suggesting a psychological edge in this fixture[5].
  • No major injury updates that would significantly sway the game result available at this time.
  • State of Origin may impact player availability and motivation, but both teams currently have representative players potentially returning to boost their sides[1].
  • Penrith are under pressure to turn their season around as four-time reigning premiers. Parramatta are desperate to move off the bottom of the ladder, but their recent form is concerning.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Parramatta Eels: 148, Penrith Panthers: -176, Draw: 2100 Penrith Panthers win ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Parramatta Eels: 4.5 -115, Penrith Panthers: -4.5 -115 Penrith Panthers cover (-4.5) ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over: 44.5 -115, Under: 44.5 -115 Over 44.5 points ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers 2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 44.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers are favored to win, but not without a fight. The value is in backing Penrith, especially given their strong recent record against Parramatta and potential for high scoring. The Eels have some attacking threat, but their poor defense is a major liability.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 28 – Parramatta Eels 18


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