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Brisbane Broncos vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-28
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: Suncorp Stadium

Game Overview

The 2025 NRL Preliminary Final features Brisbane Broncos hosting Penrith Panthers at Suncorp Stadium. The Panthers enter as a slight favorite based on championship pedigree and recent dominance, but the Broncos have strong home advantage and attacking flair, promising a high-intensity tactical contest.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers show consistent September finals success with disciplined defense and clinical execution. Broncos have improved steadily, leveraging home ground and attacking speed in recent matches.
  • Historical and recent data favor Penrith with a 67% win probability in simulations, but Broncos hold a strong home record and have pushed Panthers tightly in prior meets.
  • No major injury concerns reported for either side, both teams expected at near full strength, preserving competitive balance.
  • Suncorp Stadium atmosphere heavily favors Broncos, likely energizing home team and applying psychological pressure on Panthers.
  • Broncos highly motivated to disrupt Penrith's dynasty on home soil; Panthers focused on continuing their championship run with strategic discipline and composure.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Brisbane Broncos: +123, Penrith Panthers: -156 Penrith Panthers ★★★☆☆ 67%
Spread Brisbane Broncos +3.5: -114, Penrith Panthers -3.5: -116 Penrith Panthers -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 61%
Over/under Over 49.5: -124, Under 49.5: -106 Over 49.5 ★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers 10%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 49.5 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Penrith Panthers at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win straight up, covering a tight spread, with a total score slightly over 49.5 points.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 26 – Brisbane Broncos 21


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Canterbury Bulldogs vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-21
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: Accor Stadium

Game Overview

The Penrith Panthers visit the Canterbury Bulldogs in an NRL critical matchup at Accor Stadium. Panthers are favorites due to superior recent form and stronger head-to-head results.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Canterbury Bulldogs have struggled recently with 5 losses in last 7 games and are low on confidence; Panthers have won their last 2 matches decisively, showcasing strong offense and defense.
  • Panthers have dominated recent meetings including a 28-4 win on Aug 28; historically, Panthers show a consistent edge over Bulldogs.
  • No major injuries reported that significantly impact starting lineups; both teams relatively healthy.
  • Match played at a neutral but high-capacity venue with no environmental conditions favoring either team directly.
  • Panthers are highly motivated aiming for a semi-final berth and continuation of strong form; Bulldogs have motivation to upset but are under pressure due to recent poor run.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs: +255, Penrith Panthers: -315, Draw: +2100 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Canterbury Bulldogs +9.5: -110, Penrith Panthers -9.5: -120 Penrith Panthers -9.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 39.5: -115, Under 39.5: -115 Under 39.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 39.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 39.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win outright with cover of -9.5 spread and total points under 39.5

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 26 – Canterbury Bulldogs 14


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New Zealand Warriors vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: Australia (Home ground of Penrith Panthers)

Game Overview

The New Zealand Warriors face a daunting challenge visiting the Penrith Panthers, who have dominated this season and hold a significant home advantage. Despite the Warriors' resilience and occasional upset potential, Penrith's form and depth put them as strong favorites.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers exhibit dominant recent form, consistently winning with strong margin averages, while the New Zealand Warriors have shown sporadic performance with inconsistent results, particularly away from home.
  • Head to head history favors Penrith with a majority of wins in recent NRL encounters. Warriors have managed only occasional competitive performances but lack consistency against Panthers’ tactical style.
  • Penrith Panthers report minimal key injuries allowing a near full-strength squad; New Zealand Warriors have minor injury concerns impacting depth, reducing their ability to sustain pressure over four quarters.
  • Playing in Australia with home crowd support benefits Penrith Panthers. Weather and field conditions are expected to be stable, not favoring the underdog.
  • Penrith Panthers push to solidify top ladder position and momentum into playoffs; Warriors aim to upset but face psychological and strategic pressure given recent losses against strong teams.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline New Zealand Warriors: +218, Penrith Panthers: -333 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread New Zealand Warriors +9.5: -120, Penrith Panthers -9.5: -120 Penrith Panthers -9.5 ★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under Over 42.5: -120, Under 42.5: -120 Over 42.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 42.5 14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 42.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win straight up with a convincing margin and a moderately high scoring game exceeding 42.5 points.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 28 – New Zealand Warriors 14


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: WIN Stadium, Wollongong

Game Overview

Penrith Panthers are clear favorites with strong recent form and championship pedigree, but St George Illawarra Dragons have home ground advantage and potential for an upset at WIN Stadium. Expect a competitive, moderately scoring match with defensive intensity.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Panthers hold dominant season form with an 81% win probability according to advanced simulations, while Dragons have been inconsistent but can leverage home crowd and underdog motivation.
  • Panthers generally stronger historically, but Dragons have caused surprise upsets at WIN Stadium. Current power rankings favor Panthers (8) over Dragons (15).
  • No specific injury reports available; assume typical NRL fitness with slight edge to Panthers in squad depth.
  • Dragons play at home in Wollongong, a venue known for upsets which may provide intangible advantage. Panthers face travel and high expectations.
  • Dragons have high motivation to prove themselves and avoid a season-ending disappointment, while Panthers seek continuation of dominance and championship momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: +410, away: -575, draw: +2500 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 81%
Spread panthers_minus_15_5: -120, dragons_plus_15_5: -110 Penrith Panthers -15.5 ★★★★☆ 77%
Over/under over_49_5: -115, under_49_5: -115 Under 49.5 points ★★★☆☆ 64%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 49.5 20%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win straight up with a convincing margin.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 28 – St George Illawarra Dragons 12


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Penrith Panthers vs. Canberra Raiders Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-22
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Panthers Stadium, Penrith, Australia

Game Overview

The Penrith Panthers are slight favorites playing at home against the Canberra Raiders in Round 25 of the 2025 NRL season. The Panthers are traditionally strong, but the Raiders have built momentum and play well in neutral or away fixtures, with the venue shift somewhat mitigating Penrith's home advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers have shown solid form with high scoring offense, recently beating strong teams; Canberra Raiders have improved defensively and gained momentum with recent good form, excelling especially away from home and in neutral venues.
  • Penrith leads recent head-to-head matchups and holds a higher power ranking (7 vs 6), but the Raiders have shown ability to keep games close and pose an upset threat, especially under pressure and in neutral conditions.
  • No significant injuries reported affecting either team that decisively shift the balance, keeping lineups close to full strength.
  • Game played at Panthers Stadium, but some sources suggest a neutral or rural venue impact reducing home advantage; weather conditions likely moderate; motivation heightened as Penrith pushes for finals positioning while Raiders aim to capitalize on upset opportunity.
  • Penrith motivated to maintain top table position and home ground dominance; Raiders highly motivated to upset favorites and continue their late-season surge with a confidence boost from recent performances.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Penrith Panthers: -150, Canberra Raiders: +133, Draw: +1900 Penrith Panthers ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Penrith Panthers -3.5 (-115), Canberra Raiders +3.5 (-115) Penrith Panthers -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over 40.5 (-105), Under 40.5 (-125) Over 40.5 ★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers 13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 40.5 13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Penrith Panthers at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers moneyline win

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 24 – 18 Canberra Raiders


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Penrith Panthers vs. Melbourne Storm Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-14
  • Time: 9:50 AM UTC
  • Location: Bankwest Stadium

Game Overview

An evenly matched NRL Round 24 clash between the Penrith Panthers and Melbourne Storm at Bankwest Stadium, with both teams exhibiting strong recent form and playoff motivation.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith holds a 5-game winning streak and sits 6th on the table with 9-7 record, while Melbourne is 3rd with 12-5 and 7 wins in 10 recent games, showing consistent high-level performance.
  • Historically balanced with 9 wins each out of 18 encounters; recent form shows Panthers favored at home supported by a 63% predicted win probability.
  • No significant injury disruptions reported for either side, both squads appear near full strength.
  • Match played at Penrith's home ground, Bankwest Stadium, providing Panthers with a home advantage; weather and pitch conditions expected to be neutral.
  • Both teams are motivated to secure position and momentum ahead of finals, Panthers aiming to strengthen playoff access, Storm pushing top 4 placement.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Penrith -120, Melbourne +108, Draw +1900 Penrith Panthers ★★★☆☆ 63%
Spread Penrith -1.5 (-125), Melbourne +1.5 (-105) Penrith Panthers -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under Over 41.5 (-115), Under 41.5 (-115) Under 41.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers 16%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 41.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Penrith Panthers at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win outright based on home advantage, recent form, and stronger predicted win probability.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 22 – Melbourne Storm 18


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Newcastle Knights vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-08
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: McDonald Jones Stadium

Game Overview

The Newcastle Knights host the Penrith Panthers in a Round 23 NRL match. Panthers enter as strong favourites based on recent form, head-to-head dominance, and superior squad depth.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers display strong recent form with consistent wins, superior fitness, and tactical execution. Newcastle Knights have been competitive but generally fall short against top-tier teams like the Panthers.
  • Historical data and simulations give Panthers around 80% chance to beat the Knights, usually by a moderate margin. Panthers have held dominance in recent matchups, especially at Newcastle's home ground.
  • No critical injury updates indicate significant absences impacting either side, suggesting both squads likely near full strength.
  • Match played at McDonald Jones Stadium favors Knights slightly due to home advantage, but Panthers’ mental and tactical edge likely neutralizes this factor.
  • Panthers motivated to maintain top-tier momentum heading into finals, while Knights aim to challenge but face a tough test against a dominant side.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Newcastle Knights: 305, Penrith Panthers: -400, Draw: 2400 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 80%
Spread Newcastle Knights +12.5: -120, Penrith Panthers -12.5: -110 Newcastle Knights +12.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 44.5: -115, Under 44.5: -115 Under 44.5 ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 44.5 31%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 44.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win by a margin within 1-12 points, in a controlled, tactical match likely scoring below or near total set line.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 24 – Newcastle Knights 18


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Gold Coast Titans vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Gold Coast Titans vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Cbus Super Stadium

Game Overview

The Penrith Panthers enter this Round 22 clash as clear favorites with strong recent form, whereas the Gold Coast Titans struggle near the bottom of the ladder despite a recent morale-boosting win.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Panthers have a 7-game winning streak and sit 5th on the ladder with a 10-7 record, showing strong defense and consistent winning form. Titans are 16th with 5-13, having won only 1 of their last 5 games.
  • In the last 10 matchups, the Panthers dominate with a 9-1 record against the Titans, reinforcing historical superiority.
  • No critical injury updates reported for either side, so full-strength lineups are expected.
  • Match played at Titans' home ground, but their home form is weak (2-6), while Panthers have a decent away record (4-3). Weather and other external factors appear neutral.
  • Panthers are pushing for a top-4 finals spot, adding motivation. Titans are fighting form and position but with low morale overall.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: 3.25, away: 1.23, draw: 25 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 81%
Spread home +12.5: 1.87, away -12.5: 1.87 Penrith Panthers -12.5 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under over 46.5: 1.87, under 46.5: 1.87 Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 67%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 25%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Penrith Panthers will win comfortably, covering the spread and with the total match points expected to stay under 46.5 given the defensive strength and form.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 28 – 14 Gold Coast Titans


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Penrith Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-26
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Game Overview

Penrith Panthers enter as strong favorites against Wests Tigers, with bookmakers heavily pricing a Panthers win. However, statistical models and recent form suggest a closer contest with a likely low scoring, defensive game given wet conditions.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Panthers exhibit strong home performance with structured, clinical play, but Tigers have shown improving form and possess attacking unpredictability. Panthers average a slight edge in attack and defense but the margin is narrower than expected.
  • Panthers have dominated recent meetings, yet the Tigers remain competitive with power rankings close (Panthers 8.83 vs Tigers 10.67) and Tigers capable of challenging defensively.
  • No significant injury news reported that materially impacts either team's core lineup.
  • Match played at CommBank Stadium, a familiar venue to Panthers who treat it as a second home; weather conditions expected wet, favoring a defensive style and potentially lowering scoring.
  • Panthers aim to maintain premiership form while Tigers are motivated to upset a top-tier team and continue demonstrating improvement against strong opponents.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Penrith -420, Wests Tigers 335, Draw 2500 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 82%
Spread Penrith -13.5 (-120), Wests Tigers +13.5 (-110) Penrith Panthers -13.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 46.5 (-125), Under 46.5 (-105) Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers 2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 27%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win outright, cover the -13.5 spread, and the match to total under 46.5 points.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 22 – Wests Tigers 18


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Penrith Panthers vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-18
  • Time: 10:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Stadium Australia, Sydney

Game Overview

The Penrith Panthers face the South Sydney Rabbitohs in a tightly contested NRL match where both teams have shown strong recent form. Penrith, the favorites with a moneyline around -250, have won the majority of recent head-to-head games but recently lost to South Sydney 18-28 on March 27, 2025. The matchup promises high intensity given their rivalry and previous matches.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers show consistent high-level performance with a majority of wins against South Sydney historically (20 wins to 14). Recent form favors Penrith but South Sydney pulled a notable upset in the last meeting.
  • Historically, Penrith leads with 59% win rate in 34 encounters, but South Sydney has won recently, indicating a competitive rivalry that could sway either way.
  • No significant injury reports affecting key players have been identified in available data, suggesting full-strength lineups likely for both teams.
  • The match is played at Stadium Australia, a neutral venue with no apparent external disadvantages for either team. Weather and pitch conditions are assumed normal.
  • South Sydney has extra motivation after their last victory over Penrith, aiming to maintain momentum. Penrith seeks to reassert dominance and avoid consecutive losses, raising competitive stakes.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Penrith Panthers: -250, South Sydney Rabbitohs: +205, Draw: +2300 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Penrith Panthers -8.5: -110, South Sydney Rabbitohs +8.5: -120 Penrith Panthers -8.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 46.5: -115, Under 46.5: -115 Over 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 63%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 46.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 46.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win moneyline, cover the -8.5 spread, and the game to go over 46.5 points.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 28 – 18 South Sydney Rabbitohs


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