Match Analysis: Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-29
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Game Overview
The bout between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima at UFC 317 is a featherweight matchup featuring two fighters who had difficulties securing opponents, leading to this pairing. Lima, a former Oktagon MMA champion with a 14-1 record, prefers this matchup over his original opponent Jonathan Martinez, aiming to capitalize on Talbott's current hype to boost his UFC standing. This fight is part of the main card during the International Fight Week in Las Vegas, which enhances exposure and stakes for both fighters.
Key Factors to Consider
- Felipe Lima has demonstrated strong performance with a 14-1 record and two UFC fights, showing resilience and skill transitioning from Oktagon MMA to UFC. Payton Talbott is a young bantamweight contender with hype behind him, likely bringing energy and momentum into the fight. Both fighters have been in training camps for several weeks, with Lima training for about five weeks since his original opponent withdrew.
- There is no recorded previous fight or head-to-head history between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima, making this their first encounter. This adds an element of unpredictability to the matchup.
- No current injuries reported affecting either fighter. The only known injury impacted an original opponent (Jonathan Martinez) who withdrew before Lima was matched with Talbott.
- The fight takes place at UFC 317 during International Fight Week at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The arena is expected to be full, creating a highly charged atmosphere. Both fighters have expressed excitement about performing in front of a large audience, which may influence their motivation and performance.
- Felipe Lima is motivated to make a strong impression on the main card and leverage a win against a hyped prospect to elevate his UFC status. Talbott has hype behind him and is likely motivated to maintain his upward trajectory and validate expectations.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Felipe Lima: -180, Payton Talbott: 150 | Felipe Lima to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Felipe Lima: -3.5 120, Payton Talbott: 3.5 -165 | Felipe Lima -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -195, Under: 2.5 150 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Felipe Lima -14% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 50% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 50% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Lima's experience, strong record, and motivation to capitalize on Talbott's hype, coupled with Talbott's momentum as a young contender, the fight is expected to be competitive. Lima's technical skill and championship background in Oktagon MMA lend him a slight edge in the matchup, suggesting he is the likely winner by close decision or late finish.
Predicted Score: Felipe Lima wins via decision or late-round TKO within 3 rounds