Match Analysis: Paulo Henrique Costa vs Roman Kopylov – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: July 19, 2025
- Time: 3:45 AM UTC
- Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Game Overview
Paulo Henrique Costa is set to face Roman Kopylov at UFC 318. Costa, known as 'Borrachinha,' is a seasoned middleweight with a strong striking background. Kopylov, with a record of 14-3-0, poses a formidable challenge with his grappling skills.
Key Factors to Consider
- Paulo Costa has experienced a mixed run recently, with losses to Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland. Roman Kopylov is less established in the UFC but has shown resilience in his fights.
- This is the first encounter between Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov. Costa's aggressive striking versus Kopylov's grappling will be a key factor.
- As of now, no significant injuries have been reported for either fighter.
- The crowd and the venue's altitude could influence performance, but both fighters should be well-prepared.
- Costa is highly motivated to win and potentially call out Khamzat Chimaev afterward.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Paulo Costa: 185, Roman Kopylov: -225 | Roman Kopylov | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | Paulo Costa: 3.5 -150, Roman Kopylov: -3.5 110 | Roman Kopylov | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -230, Under 2.5: 175 | Over 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Roman Kopylov -13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 0% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the odds, Roman Kopylov is favored to win, but Paulo Costa's potential for a knockout keeps the fight competitive.
Predicted Score: Decision or stoppage in the third round, favoring Roman Kopylov.