Match Analysis: Rashid Vagabov vs Paulo da Silva – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-01
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Dana White's Contender Series, likely Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
Rashid Vagabov and Paulo da Silva face off in a flyweight bout at Dana White's Contender Series Week 8. Vagabov, a 27-year-old Russian known for his dominant wrestling and top control, holds a 13-2 record with a balanced finishing ability in both submissions and TKOs. Paulo da Silva, a 23-year-old Brazilian submission specialist from Charles Oliveira's camp, has an 11-1 record with a tendency to win by submission. The fight is expected to hinge on Vagabov's ability to control the grappling exchanges and dictate the pace, potentially neutralizing da Silva's submission threat.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vagabov represents Eagles MMA, a renowned camp with roots in dominant wrestling styles, reflecting in his strong top control and ground-and-pound techniques. Da Silva fights out of Charles Oliveira Gold Team, with a submission-heavy style but limited success against higher-tier opponents compared to Vagabov.
- This is their first meeting. Vagabov has faced and defeated higher-level competition more consistently, while da Silva’s opponents have mostly been lower-tier fighters except for a notable win over Hugo Paiva.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
- The fight is part of Dana White's Contender Series, increasing motivation for both fighters to impress and secure a UFC contract. Vagabov’s experience in high-pressure situations and consistent competition level may provide a psychological edge.
- Vagabov aims to continue his undefeated streak and secure a UFC contract through dominant performance. Da Silva seeks to prove he can beat top competition and validate his submission-focused approach against elite grapplers.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -600, away: 450 | Rashid Vagabov | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | home_spread: -1.5 at -165, away_spread: +1.5 at +145 | Rashid Vagabov to win by at least 2 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | over_1.5: -165, under_1.5: +145 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 80% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rashid Vagabov -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rashid Vagabov is predicted to win by decision or ground-and-pound stoppage, leveraging superior wrestling and positional control to neutralize da Silva's submission threats. The fight is likely to be a tactical grappling battle with Vagabov imposing pressure and pace.
Predicted Score: Rashid Vagabov wins by decision or late stoppage after 2 to 3 rounds