Match Analysis: Usman Nurmagomedov vs Paul Hughes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: October 3, 2025
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Coca-Cola Arena, Dubai
Game Overview
Usman Nurmagomedov, the undefeated lightweight champion, faces Paul Hughes in a highly anticipated rematch. Their first bout was closely contested, with Usman winning by majority decision.
Key Factors to Consider
- Usman Nurmagomedov is undefeated and has shown strong performance in recent fights. Paul Hughes lost in the first bout but is highly motivated for revenge.
- Usman Nurmagomedov won the first bout by majority decision, indicating a slight edge over Hughes.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter.
- The rematch and the Dubai setting could add pressure, but both fighters are experienced.
- Paul Hughes is highly motivated for revenge, while Usman Nurmagomedov aims to continue his winning streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Usman Nurmagomedov: -225, Paul Hughes: +190 | Usman Nurmagomedov | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | Over 4.5: -125, Under 4.5: +105 | Over 4.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Usman Nurmagomedov -21% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 4.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 4.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Usman Nurmagomedov is likely to win by decision.
Predicted Score: Usman Nurmagomedov by decision