Patryk Kaczmarczyk vs. Adam Soldaev Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Patryk Kaczmarczyk vs Adam Soldaev – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: November 15, 2025
  • Time: 3:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Netto Arena, Szczecin, Poland

Game Overview

KSW 112 interim featherweight championship bout between #1 ranked Patryk Kaczmarczyk (12-3) and #2 ranked Adam Soldaev (10-2). This is a 5-round championship fight for the interim KSW featherweight title. Kaczmarczyk is fighting for the interim belt after losing to Robert RuchaΕ‚a in 2024, while Soldaev arrives with a three-fight winning streak and has finished 6 of 10 wins by stoppage.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Kaczmarczyk: 12-3 record with 3 KOs (20%) and 2 submissions (13%), 7 decisions (47%). Last fought January 2025, defeating Ahmed Vila. Competed in KSW since 2021 with 6 wins in 9 fights. Earned two bonuses for best fights and one for best knockout. Soldaev: 10-2 record with 6 KOs (60%) and 1 submission (8%), 3 decisions (25%). Currently riding three-fight winning streak with 7 of 10 wins by stoppage, 6 of which in the first round.
  • First meeting between these fighters. Met face-to-face immediately after Soldaev's last fight to seal the matchup.
  • Kaczmarczyk was scheduled to return in July 2025 but an injury prevented him from competing against Leo Brichta. Current injury status unclear.
  • This is the fourth time KSW has held an event in Szczecin. Championship-level bout carries added pressure and motivation for both competitors.
  • Kaczmarczyk seeking redemption after losing interim title shot in 2024. Soldaev attempting to claim the interim title on the momentum of three consecutive wins. Both fighters are highly motivated for a title opportunity.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Soldaev -170 | Kaczmarczyk +130 Adam Soldaev β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜†β˜† 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Adam Soldaev 8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

πŸ”₯ Best Value Pick: Adam Soldaev at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Adam Soldaev to win via knockout or submission. Soldaev's superior striking efficiency (60% finishing rate vs 20%) and first-round dominance pattern (6 of 7 stoppage wins in round one) provide significant edge against a returning Kaczmarczyk with recent injury concerns and lower output efficiency.

Predicted Score: Adam Soldaev wins Round 2 via TKO (Stoppage 3:45)


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