Match Analysis: Patryk Kaczmarczyk vs Adam Soldaev – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Netto Arena, Szczecin, Poland
Game Overview
The main event of KSW 112 features the interim featherweight championship bout between Patryk Kaczmarczyk and Adam Soldaev. Kaczmarczyk (12-3) is the #1 ranked featherweight fighter in KSW, known for a balanced mix of KOs, submissions, and decisions. Soldaev (10-2) is ranked #2, coming off a three-fight winning streak with a high finishing rate mostly by early KOs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Kaczmarczyk has fought nine times in KSW since 2021 with six wins, including a recent victory in January 2025. Soldaev holds a strong recent form with three consecutive wins and seven out of ten total wins by stoppage, indicating strong finishing ability.
- No direct head-to-head bouts recorded between Kaczmarczyk and Soldaev prior to this event. Both have shown competitive performances in the featherweight division.
- Kaczmarczyk was forced to withdraw from a July 2025 fight against Leo Brichta due to injury, but has since recovered to face Soldaev. No reported injuries for Soldaev.
- The fight acts as a decider for the interim featherweight championship belt with high stakes increasing both fighters' motivation. The event is held in Poland, which may slightly favor Kaczmarczyk as the local fighter.
- Kaczmarczyk aims to reclaim interim featherweight glory after a prior loss in 2024 championship fight, motivated by home crowd advantage and legacy. Soldaev, riding a winning streak, looks to cement his status as a top contender with aggressive finishes.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Adam Soldaev: -170, Patryk Kaczmarczyk: 130 | Adam Soldaev to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Soldaev -1.5 rounds: -110, Kaczmarczyk +1.5 rounds: -110 | Soldaev -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5 rounds: -120, Under 3.5 rounds: 100 | Under 3.5 rounds (Fight likely to end early) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Adam Soldaev -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Adam Soldaev at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The fight is expected to be highly competitive, with Soldaev's finishing power and momentum giving him a slight edge, whereas Kaczmarczyk's experience and well-rounded skill set could enable a decision win if he neutralizes Soldaev's aggression.
Predicted Score: Adam Soldaev wins by TKO in round 2