Match Analysis: Patrick Ocheme vs Abdoul Razac Sankara – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Kigali, Rwanda
Game Overview
Patrick Ocheme vs Abdoul Razac Sankara is a featherweight catchweight bout at PFL Africa 3 after both fighters missed weight and the fight was demoted from the semifinal tournament bracket. Both are emerging MMA prospects, but Sankara has generated notable buzz with a recent first-round KO victory over Shadrick Dju Yemba, showcasing striking flair and knockout power. Ocheme’s recent form is less public, but he is favored by sportsbooks heading into this matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sankara is coming off a sensational first-round KO at PFL Africa 2 in August, highlighting his striking pedigree and quick-finishing ability. Ocheme’s recent fights and performances are less documented, but sportsbooks favor him as the more established name. Both fighters have missed weight, which could imply less-than-optimal preparation.
- No previous head-to-head encounter is recorded. This is their first meeting.
- No reported injuries for either fighter. Both missing weight could be a red flag for conditioning, potentially impacting stamina and durability.
- Fight moved to catchweight after both missed weight, reducing competitive stakes. Event is in Kigali, Rwanda; travel and acclimation could factor into performance, though both are African fighters. Both were originally in the semifinal tournament bracket, so pressure and scrutiny are high despite the bout’s demotion.
- For Sankara, a victory solidifies his status as a rising star after his viral KO. For Ocheme, a win reasserts his claim to the tournament hierarchy. Both have something to prove after the weigh-in mishap, but the bout’s status as a ‘showcase’ rather than a tournament fight may dampen urgency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Patrick Ocheme -170, Abdoul Razac Sankara +145 | Patrick Ocheme | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Patrick Ocheme -3.5 (assuming typical MMA handicap lines) | Patrick Ocheme covers | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 -160 / Under 1.5 +140 | Under 1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Patrick Ocheme -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 49% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 49% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Patrick Ocheme is favored by oddsmakers, but Sankara’s recent explosive performance and finishing ability present a live upset risk. Expect a competitive fight with a likely finish before the final bell.
Predicted Score: Abdoul Razac Sankara defeats Patrick Ocheme by KO/TKO in Round 2