Match Analysis: Patricio Pitbull vs Losene Keita – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 7:15 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire, a seasoned MMA veteran at 38 years old with a strong wrestling and control game, faces European prospect Losene Keita, age 27, known for his explosive striking and finishing ability. The bout is a featherweight clash at UFC Paris, notable for contrasting styles and career trajectories, with Keita making his UFC debut and positioned as a strong favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

• Losene Keita has momentum as a rising European prospect with a high finishing rate (62.5% by KO/TKO), relying on speed and striking. Patricio Pitbull brings decades of top-level experience, with strengths in takedown control and wrestling, evident in prior UFC performances.
• This is their first professional meeting; no direct prior head-to-head data is available.
• No recent or reported injuries for either fighter have been disclosed leading up to this bout.
• The fight is in Paris, Europe, potentially favoring Losene Keita geographically and crowd-wise. Patricio, a veteran, may be facing age-related physical decline but brings experience. Keita’s UFC debut status adds motivation to prove himself at a major event.
• Keita aims to establish himself on the UFC stage with a high-profile win early in his career, likely increasing his motivation and confidence. Pitbull seeks to maintain relevance and capitalize on experience despite physical aging, motivated to prove he can still compete at the highest level.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Losene Keita: -225, Patricio Pitbull: 185	Losene Keita	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Losene Keita: -3.5 100, Patricio Pitbull: 3.5 -135	Losene Keita to win by more than 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -188, Under: 2.5 145	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Losene Keita -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Losene Keita at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Losene Keita is predicted to win based on youth, momentum, and striking advantage, with high confidence in a knockout or TKO finish if he maintains distance and pace. Patricio Pitbull’s best chance lies in securing early takedowns and controlling the fight’s pace to neutralize striking threats.

Predicted Score: Losene Keita wins by TKO in round 3

Match Analysis: Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-20
• Time: 2:45 AM UTC
• Location: New Orleans

Game Overview

Dan Ige faces Patricio Pitbull in a remarkable featherweight bout at UFC 318. Ige, ranked No. 11 in the division, brings a dynamic skillset against Pitbull, a former two-division Bellator champion. The fight is expected to be closely contested, with Ige seeking to maintain a recent winning streak and Pitbull looking to prove his enduring prowess.

Key Factors to Consider

• Dan Ige has been more active in recent times, which might give him a slight edge in terms of stamina and momentum. Pitbull, however, offers vast experience and a versatile fighting style.
• This is their first meeting, so there is no prior head-to-head data to consider.
• No significant injuries are reported for either fighter.
• Home advantage might slightly favor Ige, but both fighters are well-traveled and experienced.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Ige seeking to climb the rankings and Pitbull aiming to demonstrate his skills in the UFC.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-218 for Dan Ige / 180 for Patricio Pitbull	Dan Ige	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	-3.5 for Dan Ige at -110 / 3.5 for Patricio Pitbull at -150	Dan Ige covers the spread	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds at -270 / Under 2.5 rounds at +200	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dan Ige -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Dan Ige by decision, given Pitbull's tendency to go the distance and Ige's current form.

Predicted Score: N/A

Match Analysis: Yair Rodriguez vs Patricio Pitbull – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 12, 2025
• Time: 3:15 AM UTC
• Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Game Overview

This match pits Yair Rodriguez, a skilled and aggressive fighter, against Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire, a highly decorated veteran from Bellator. Both fighters are motivated to secure a win, with Pitbull seeking to prove himself in the UFC and Rodriguez looking to end a losing streak.

Key Factors to Consider

• Yair Rodriguez is known for his dynamic striking and submission skills, while Patricio Pitbull brings a well-rounded skillset with success in knockouts, submissions, and decisions.
• This is their first meeting, with no prior head-to-head competition.
• No significant injury updates have been reported for either fighter.
• The UFC debut of Patricio Pitbull adds pressure, but both fighters are highly motivated for this bout.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Pitbull seeking UFC gold and Rodriguez trying to break his losing streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Yair Rodriguez -194, Patricio Pitbull 169	Yair Rodriguez	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over_under	Over 2.5 -145, Under 2.5 115	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Yair Rodriguez 5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Yair Rodriguez is favored due to his current UFC experience and strong striking, but Patricio Pitbull's vast experience and well-rounded skills make him a formidable opponent.

Predicted Score: Yair Rodriguez via decision or late-round finish

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey Cowan Prediction	Nora Cornolle Win	-180	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull Prediction	Yair Rodriguez Win	-194	★★★☆☆ 65% (65%)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva Prediction	Jean Silva Win	-230	★★★☆☆ 65% (65%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +238

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $67.65