Match Analysis: Patricio Pitbull vs Losene Keita – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 7:15 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris

Game Overview

A featherweight clash between Patricio Pitbull, a highly decorated veteran at age 38, and Losene Keita, a 27-year-old European prospect making his UFC debut. The fight is pivotal for both careers, with Keita favored due to youth, recent momentum, and striking power.

Key Factors to Consider

• Losene Keita has strong recent form as a rising prospect with a 62.5% finish rate and explosive striking. Patricio Pitbull remains a veteran with grappling control skills but shows some decline due to age.
• No previous head-to-head matchups between these fighters; styles contrast Keita’s striking speed versus Pitbull’s wrestling/control.
• No reported injuries for either competitor leading into the bout.
• The fight takes place in Paris, somewhat neutral ground but potentially with slight crowd support for European Keita; no significant external pressures reported.
• Keita motivated by UFC debut and career trajectory; Pitbull motivated by legacy and proving viability against younger competition.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Losene Keita: -225, Patricio Pitbull: +185	Losene Keita	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Losene Keita -3.5: +100, Patricio Pitbull +3.5: -135	Losene Keita -3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -188, Under 2.5: +145	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Losene Keita -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 47%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Losene Keita to win by knockout or technical knockout

Predicted Score: Losene Keita wins by TKO in Round 2

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – September 6, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Brad Tavares vs. Robert Bryczek Prediction	Under 2.5	165	59%
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho Prediction	Under 4.5	150	55%
Patricio Pitbull vs. Losene Keita Prediction	Under 2.5	145	47%

Combined Odds: +1523 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $324.63

Match Analysis: Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-19
• Time: 2:45 AM UTC
• Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Game Overview

Elite featherweight showdown between UFC veteran Dan Ige and former Bellator champion Patricio Pitbull, marking Pitbull's second high-profile UFC bout. Ige enters as a sizable favorite, with questions about Pitbull's ability to compete at the elite UFC level at age 38.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ige is coming off a bounce-back win and has consistently faced UFC-level competition; Pitbull, while a decorated champion in Bellator, looked outmatched in his UFC debut against a younger, faster opponent[1]. Ige's youth, speed, and well-roundedness are considered advantages[1]. Pitbull has made significant changes to his preparation, including isolating from distractions, which could signal heightened focus[3][4].
• No prior fights between the two.
• No major injuries reported pre-fight for either fighter.
• Pitbull's transition from Bellator to UFC later in his career may limit his ability to adapt to the higher level of competition; Ige's experience in the UFC and comfort in the spotlight are advantages. Pitbull's isolation from family and distractions could sharpen his focus, but also may indicate stress or pressure[3][4].
• Ige is motivated to climb the UFC rankings and prove he belongs among the elite. Pitbull is eager to validate his legacy in the UFC, though there are questions about his age and adaptability[1].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dan Ige -218, Patricio Pitbull +180	Dan Ige	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Dan Ige -3.5 +110, Patricio Pitbull +3.5 -150	Dan Ige -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 Rounds -270, Under 2.5 Rounds +200	Over 2.5 Rounds	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dan Ige -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 44.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Dan Ige to win by outworking and outlasting Pitbull, leveraging superior speed, combinations, and UFC-level experience.

Predicted Score: Dan Ige by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – July 19, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov Prediction	Under 2.5	130	38%
Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway Prediction	Under 4.5	124	23%
Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull Prediction	Over 2.5	-270	16%

Combined Odds: +606 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $141.2

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari Prediction	Carli Judice Win	-340	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull Prediction	Dan Ige Win	-218	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber Prediction	Daniel Zellhuber -3.5	-250	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +164

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $52.86

Match Analysis: Yair Rodriguez vs Patricio Pitbull – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 12, 2025
• Time: 3:15 AM UTC
• Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Game Overview

This match pits Yair Rodriguez, a skilled and aggressive fighter, against Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire, a highly decorated veteran from Bellator. Both fighters are motivated to secure a win, with Pitbull seeking to prove himself in the UFC and Rodriguez looking to end a losing streak.

Key Factors to Consider

• Yair Rodriguez is known for his dynamic striking and submission skills, while Patricio Pitbull brings a well-rounded skillset with success in knockouts, submissions, and decisions.
• This is their first meeting, with no prior head-to-head competition.
• No significant injury updates have been reported for either fighter.
• The UFC debut of Patricio Pitbull adds pressure, but both fighters are highly motivated for this bout.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Pitbull seeking UFC gold and Rodriguez trying to break his losing streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Yair Rodriguez -194, Patricio Pitbull 169	Yair Rodriguez	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over_under	Over 2.5 -145, Under 2.5 115	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Yair Rodriguez 5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Yair Rodriguez is favored due to his current UFC experience and strong striking, but Patricio Pitbull's vast experience and well-rounded skills make him a formidable opponent.

Predicted Score: Yair Rodriguez via decision or late-round finish

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey Cowan Prediction	Nora Cornolle Win	-180	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull Prediction	Yair Rodriguez Win	-194	★★★☆☆ 65% (65%)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva Prediction	Jean Silva Win	-230	★★★☆☆ 65% (65%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +238

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $67.65