Match Analysis: Patchy Mix vs Mario Bautista – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-07
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Game Overview
The highly anticipated bantamweight bout at UFC 316 features Mario Bautista, currently ranked No. 12 in the UFC bantamweight division, against Patchy Mix, who is making his UFC debut. Both fighters are on impressive winning streaks, with Bautista aiming to maintain his top 10 position and Mix seeking to make a strong impression in the UFC. Bautista boasts a high-volume striking style, while Mix excels in grappling with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mario Bautista has a professional record of 15-2, including a seven-fight winning streak. Patchy Mix holds a 20-1 record, also on a seven-fight winning streak, with notable victories in Bellator.
- There is no prior head-to-head matchup between the two fighters.
- No recent injuries have been reported for either fighter.
- The bout takes place at the Prudential Center, which could favor neither fighter specifically in terms of crowd support.
- Both fighters are highly motivated. Bautista seeks to maintain his ranking, while Mix aims to make a successful UFC debut.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mario Bautista: 154, Patchy Mix: -185 | Mario Bautista | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
| Spread | Mario Bautista: 3.5 -135, Patchy Mix: -3.5 100 | Mario Bautista +3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -188, Under: 2.5 145 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mario Bautista 47% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 35% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Mario Bautista at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on the fighting styles and recent performances, Mario Bautista is slightly favored to win, given his versatile skillset and experience in the UFC. However, Patchy Mix's grappling skills pose a significant threat.
Predicted Score: Decision victory for Mario Bautista