Match Analysis: Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York

Game Overview

This match is a featherweight rematch at UFC 322 between Pat Sabatini and Chepe Mariscal, marking a long-awaited showdown nearly seven and a half years after their first fight in 2018. Both fighters have shown significant growth, with Mariscal known for relentless pressure and volume striking, and Sabatini holding a strong submission grappling skill set. The fight is scheduled for three rounds and expected to feature a classic striker versus grappler dynamic.

Key Factors to Consider

• Chepe Mariscal is undefeated in recent UFC fights with a five-fight win streak, applying high-volume striking at 4.75 significant strikes per minute with 57% accuracy and strong cardio. Pat Sabatini has a 20-5 record, with 12 submission wins, improved striking and relentless submission hunting, averaging 1.99 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Sabatini defends strikes better, taking 1.22 significant strikes per minute compared to Mariscal's 3.07.
• Their previous meeting in 2018 ended with different dynamics; this is a rematch with both fighters having significantly elevated their games. Detailed prior results are scarce, but current form heavily favors Mariscal's pressure and volume striking against Sabatini’s grappling control.
• No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either fighter leading up to the event.
• The fight takes place at the iconic Madison Square Garden, with UFC’s high-profile event atmosphere adding motivation. Both fighters have considerable motivation to prove superiority in a long-awaited rematch, contributing to a highly competitive environment.
• Mariscal is motivated by his current undefeated UFC streak and his aggressive, never-back-down fighting style. Sabatini is motivated by his recent wins showcasing improvement and the chance to assert dominance with his submission game, aiming to exploit Mariscal’s defensive gaps.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Pat Sabatini: -130, Chepe Mariscal: 110	Pat Sabatini	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Pat Sabatini: -3.5 145, Chepe Mariscal: 3.5 -200	Pat Sabatini -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	over: 2.5 -200, under: 2.5 154	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Pat Sabatini 6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 40%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Pat Sabatini is predicted to win by submission or decision as he can neutralize Mariscal’s striking pressure with his grappling expertise. Mariscal’s high-volume striking and cardio make him a tough opponent, but Sabatini’s durability and submission prowess give him a tactical edge, particularly if he manages to bring the fight to the ground.

Predicted Score: Pat Sabatini wins via submission or decision within 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Pat Sabatini vs Joanderson Brito – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: Saturday, April 5, 2025
• Time: 3:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

The featherweight bout between Pat Sabatini and Joanderson Brito at UFC on ESPN 65 is a strategically intriguing matchup, pitting Sabatini's grappling prowess against Brito's aggressive striking.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pat Sabatini excels in grappling with a higher takedown average and submission rate, while Joanderson Brito is known for his formidable striking capabilities with a higher strike rate. Sabatini's last win was via submission, and Brito recently lost by decision.
• This is the first matchup between the two fighters, making past encounters irrelevant.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter.
• Both fighters have similar travel and recovery conditions, ensuring neither has an external advantage.
• Both fighters are highly motivated given the visibility and stakes of a UFC bout.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Pat Sabatini: 190, Joanderson Brito: -230	Joanderson Brito	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Pat Sabatini: +7.5 100, Joanderson Brito: -7.5 -135	Joanderson Brito	★★☆☆☆ 45%
Over_under	Over 1.5: -154, Under 1.5: 120	Over 1.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Predicted Outcome

Joanderson Brito has a slight edge due to his striking power, but Sabatini's grappling skills pose a significant threat.

Predicted Score: Decision or late finish for Joanderson Brito