Match Analysis: Lewis Crocker vs Paddy Donovan – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Windsor Park, Belfast, United Kingdom
Game Overview
A highly anticipated IBF welterweight title rematch between undefeated Lewis Crocker and favored Paddy Donovan. The previous fight ended controversially in Crocker's favor via disqualification despite Donovan dominating much of the bout.
Key Factors to Consider
- Donovan is considered the superior boxer with an aggressive, accurate style and recent dominant performance over Crocker; Crocker remains undefeated but was dominated before the DQ win.
- This is a rematch. The first fight was dominated by Donovan but ended in a controversial DQ ruling favoring Crocker after a punch after the bell.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter approaching the bout, both expected to make the welterweight limit.
- The fight takes place in Belfast, close to Crocker’s home turf, which may boost his motivation and crowd support.
- Both fighters highly motivated—the vacant IBF welterweight title is on the line, with Donovan aiming to prove clear superiority and Crocker seeking to validate his first win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lewis Crocker: +525, Paddy Donovan: -850 | Paddy Donovan | ★★★★☆ 83% |
| Spread | Paddy Donovan -4.5: -110, Lewis Crocker +4.5: -110 | Paddy Donovan -4.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 9.5 rounds: -115, Under 9.5 rounds: -115 | Under 9.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Paddy Donovan -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 9.5 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 9.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Paddy Donovan to win by unanimous decision
Predicted Score: Paddy Donovan wins by unanimous decision after 10 rounds