Match Analysis: Oshae Jones vs Elia Carranza – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-25
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: The Tabernacle, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Game Overview

Oshae Jones, undefeated at 8-0 with 3 KOs and current IBF and IBO junior middleweight world champion, defends her titles against Elia Carranza, who holds an 11-1 record with 3 KOs. This is a highly anticipated bout with Jones as clear favorite, fighting on home ground in Atlanta.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jones is undefeated with strong recent form, including a title win over Fenke Hermans, while Carranza is experienced but with one loss and fewer recent high-profile wins.
• No previous head-to-head bouts found between Jones and Carranza, making this their first competitive meeting.
• No injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the match, both are expected to be at peak condition.
• Fight takes place in Atlanta, Georgia, giving Jones home advantage and likely audience support. The bout is streamed live on DAZN, increasing exposure and motivation for Jones to defend titles decisively.
• Jones motivated to defend IBF and IBO titles for the first time, leveraging home advantage. Carranza enters as challenger aiming to upset the undefeated champion, creating a motivated underdog dynamic.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Oshae_Jones: -750, Elia_Carranza: 475	Oshae Jones	★★★★☆ 82%
Spread	Oshae_Jones_-2.5: -350, Elia_Carranza_+2.5: 280	Oshae Jones -2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	over_8.5: -700, under_8.5: 450	Under 8.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Oshae Jones -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 8.5 296%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 296% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 65.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Oshae Jones to win on moneyline, cover the spread, and the fight to go under 8.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Oshae Jones wins by decision or stoppage around round 7