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Match Analysis: James Power vs Omar Tugarev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-28
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Cage Warriors 191: Gittins vs. Giordano 2 event

Game Overview

The interim lightweight title bout between James Power and Omar Tugarev features two rising contenders in the 155 lbs division. Power holds a pro record of 8-1, known for his striking power with 7 of his wins by KO/TKO and one decision loss. Tugarev is undefeated at 7-0, a versatile finisher with 3 KOs and 3 submissions, showing a balanced skill set. The fight is scheduled for 5 rounds in the Cage Warriors Fighting Championship.

Key Factors to Consider

• James Power is coming off strong performances, showing a high knockout rate (78%) but has never won by submission. Omar Tugarev has an unbeaten record with an even split between knockouts and submissions (43% each), suggesting a more well-rounded finishing ability.
• This is their first meeting; no prior head-to-head data is available.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, indicating both are likely at full health.
• The fight is a high-stakes interim lightweight title bout which could affect motivation and pressure. Both fighters are relatively young and hungry for a title opportunity.
• Tugarev looks to maintain his undefeated streak and claim the interim title, while Power aims to avenge his sole loss and solidify his status as a top lightweight contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	James Power: -145, Omar Tugarev: 125	James Power to win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	James Power -1.5 (standard UFC/MMA spreads usually aren’t public, inference based on moneyline)	James Power to win by a margin (e.g., finish or decision clear enough to cover spread)	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -140, Under 2.5 rounds: 110	Under 2.5 rounds, likely a quicker finish given both fighters have high finish rates	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	James Power -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 20%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

James Power is favored to win due to his striking power and experience, but Omar Tugarev's undefeated record and submission skills make this a competitive matchup. A close fight is expected, with Power having a slight edge in winning probability.

Predicted Score: James Power wins by TKO in round 3