Match Analysis: Omar El Dafrawy vs Florim Zendeli – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-03
• Time: 3:00 PM UTC
• Location: Coca-Cola Arena, United Arab Emirates

Game Overview

The PFL Champions Series prelims fight in the catchweight division between Omar El Dafrawy and Florim Zendeli promises a dynamic matchup with contrasting styles and experience levels.

Key Factors to Consider

• Omar El Dafrawy holds a strong 14-5 professional record, fighting out of Soma Fight Club, and has a high finishing rate with 57.1% KOs. Florim Zendeli, slightly taller and with a longer reach, has shown resilience and solid performances but less finishing upside.
• No previous head-to-head records are available between the two fighters, making this an initial test of styles.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter leading up to this bout, indicating both competitors entering at full strength.
• The fight takes place at the Coca-Cola Arena in UAE, a neutral venue for both; Omar trains out of Indonesia while Florim is from Albania, potentially impacting acclimatization factors.
• Both fighters are motivated to advance in the PFL Champions Series; Omar benefits from momentum through recent wins and a finishing approach, while Florim looks to leverage experience and tactical fight IQ.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Omar El Dafrawy: -177, Florim Zendeli: +152	Omar El Dafrawy	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Omar El Dafrawy -1.5: +140, Florim Zendeli +1.5: -160	Omar El Dafrawy -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: +105, Under 1.5 rounds: -125	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Omar El Dafrawy -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Omar El Dafrawy to win; Spread: Omar El Dafrawy to win by 1 round margin; Over/Under: Under 1.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Omar El Dafrawy wins by TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Omar El Dafrawy vs Daniele Miceli – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-04
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: The Green Halls, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Game Overview

The main event of PFL MENA 2 features Omar El Dafrawy (13-5) facing Daniele Miceli (13-6, 1 NC), highlighting a classic striker (El Dafrawy) versus grappler (Miceli) matchup. El Dafrawy is the reigning PFL Middle East and North Africa welterweight champion with a seven-fight winning streak, while Miceli, a 2024 PFL Europe welterweight finalist, brings veteran experience and a submission-heavy skill set. The fight is expected to be a high-stakes battle with potential for an early finish or a tactical prolonged match.

Key Factors to Consider

• El Dafrawy is coming off a strong winning streak, including a recent TKO win in the PFL MENA welterweight final. Miceli has shown resilience with only one loss in his last six fights and a record featuring multiple submission victories, indicating high grappling proficiency.
• No previous head-to-head encounters have been recorded between El Dafrawy and Miceli, making this a fresh competitive matchup.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the fight, allowing both to compete at full strength.
• The fight takes place at The Green Halls in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which is familiar territory for El Dafrawy, who previously won the 2024 title there. The event is part of the PFL MENA 2 card broadcast internationally on ESPN+ and DAZN.
• El Dafrawy aims to defend his regional dominance and extend his winning streak, motivated by a recent $100,000 payday and home-continent advantage. Miceli seeks redemption after his 2024 PFL Europe final loss, eager to establish himself in the PFL global scene at age 37.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Omar El Dafrawy: -500, Daniele Miceli: 300	Omar El Dafrawy	★★★★☆ 82%
Spread	Omar El Dafrawy: -1.5, Daniele Miceli: +1.5	Omar El Dafrawy -1.5	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: 1.90, Under 1.5 rounds: 1.90	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Omar El Dafrawy -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Omar El Dafrawy at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Omar El Dafrawy is favored to win, likely by knockout in the first round, leveraging his striking power and momentum. Daniele Miceli's grappling poses a threat if he can avoid early damage, but El Dafrawy's recent form and home advantage provide a significant edge.

Predicted Score: El Dafrawy wins by KO/TKO in Round 1