Match Analysis: Omar El Dafrawy vs Florim Zendeli – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-03
• Time: 3:00 PM UTC
• Location: Coca-Cola Arena, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Game Overview

This is a welterweight (170 lbs) bout on the prelims of the PFL Champions Series, featuring rising Egyptian fighter Omar El Dafrawy against Albania’s Florim Zendeli. Both fighters aim to make a statement in a PFL regional event with potential global exposure. Omar comes from Soma Fight Club in Bali, Indonesia, with a strong 14-5-0 record and notable finishing ability (8 KOs, 3 submissions). The fight is scheduled for three rounds, with both fighters in their physical primes (Omar 30, Florim 35). Analysis of recent performance, key stats, and regional trends is necessary to gauge this tightly matched contest[1][3].

Key Factors to Consider

• Omar El Dafrawy’s resume (14-5-0, 8 KOs, 3 subs) indicates a dangerous, finishing striker with a high knockout ratio. His losses have mostly come via decision (4 of 5), not stoppages. Florim Zendeli’s full record and specific traits are less detailed in available data, but he is older (35) and slightly taller (185 cm vs. 183 cm)[1]. Both have international experience, but Omar’s is more documented[3].
• No previous meetings between the fighters are recorded. This is a fresh matchup with limited direct comparison data.
• No injury reports or withdrawals noted pre-fight. Both fighters are scheduled and confirmed[1][3].
• The fight takes place in Dubai, a neutral venue for both competitors. The event is part of a regional PFL series, with moderate global attention but potentially less pressure than in major champions’ league bouts[1]. Octagonal ring, PFL ruleset, three 5-minute rounds.
• Both fighters have strong incentives: Omar is looking to build momentum for a PFL global series slot, while Florim likely seeks to upset a regional favorite in a high-profile event. Omar’s high finishing rate suggests confidence and aggression, while Florim’s experience might favor a calculated, veteran approach.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Omar El Dafrawy -177, Florim Zendeli +152	El Dafrawy to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds +105, Under 1.5 rounds -125	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Omar El Dafrawy 66%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 29%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Omar El Dafrawy at 66% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Omar El Dafrawy is favored to win by decision or late stoppage, given his superior finishing statistics and age advantage. However, Florim Zendeli’s reach and experience could make this competitive, possibly extending to a close decision. The most likely outcome is a finish by Omar, but a narrow decision either way would not surprise. The fight is expected to be competitive early, with a possible acceleration in the second or third round[3].

Predicted Score: Omar El Dafrawy by TKO/KO (Round 2)

Match Analysis: Omar El Dafrawy vs Daniele Miceli – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-04
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: The Green Halls, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Game Overview

The main event of PFL MENA 2 features Omar El Dafrawy (13-5) from Egypt, a powerful striker on a seven-fight winning streak, against Daniele "The Cyborg" Miceli (13-6, 1 NC) from Italy, a seasoned grappler with seven submission wins. The matchup is a classic striker versus grappler contest, promising a decisive fight that could end quickly given El Dafrawy's KO power and Miceli's submission skills. The event is broadcast on ESPN+ internationally and DAZN in the UK.

Key Factors to Consider

• El Dafrawy is entering this fight after winning the inaugural PFL Middle East and North Africa welterweight tournament with a recent victory by TKO. He has a strong momentum with a seven-fight win streak. Miceli has performed well with only one loss in his last six fights, showcasing resilience and a grappling-heavy approach, having secured seven wins by submission.
• This fight marks a high-profile confrontation but there is no prior head-to-head matchup data available between El Dafrawy and Miceli, making predictions reliant on their styles and recent performances.
• No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter ahead of this contest, suggesting both are at full health and prepared.
• The fight takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where El Dafrawy previously captured a title, potentially giving him a psychological edge with local support. The bout timing corresponds to prime viewing on major MMA platforms, increasing pressure for a strong performance.
• El Dafrawy is motivated by defending his PFL MENA title and extending his winning streak, backed by a $100,000 payday in his last fight. Miceli aims to bounce back from his recent loss in the 2024 PFL Europe welterweight final and cement his status with a big upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Omar El Dafrawy: -500, Daniele Miceli: +300	Omar El Dafrawy to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Omar El Dafrawy: -1.5 (-110), Daniele Miceli: +1.5 (-110)	El Dafrawy to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -120, Under 1.5 rounds: +100	Under 1.5 rounds (early finish expected)	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Omar El Dafrawy -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Omar El Dafrawy at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Omar El Dafrawy is favored to win by KO in the first round due to his striking superiority and recent dominant performances, with a calculated prediction confidence of 75%. Daniele Miceli's grappling and submission threat keep the fight competitive but less likely to overcome El Dafrawy's momentum.

Predicted Score: El Dafrawy wins by KO in Round 1