Match Analysis: Stephen Erceg vs Ode Osbourne – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Stephen Erceg faces Ode Osbourne in a bantamweight UFC fight at UFC Vegas 109. Erceg is favored heavily on the moneyline, with a more precise striking rate and defense. The fight features contrasting styles with Erceg’s orthodox stance and Osbourne’s southpaw approach, both with solid striking records but Erceg showing superior statistical metrics.

Key Factors to Consider

• Erceg has a 12-4 record, demonstrating consistent performance with 4.45 significant strikes landed per minute at 46% accuracy and 52% strike defense. Osbourne’s 13-8 record includes a respectable 3.20 strikes landed per minute at 40% accuracy but poorer defense at 46%.
• No direct prior matchups between Erceg and Osbourne, making this a stylistic matchup based on their respective fight metrics and recent form.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout, suggesting both are in optimal physical condition.
• Both fighters are competing in the UFC Apex in Las Vegas; no travel or venue disadvantage is evident. Erceg’s younger age (30 vs 33) and recent betting market support suggest higher confidence in his current form.
• Erceg may have higher motivation to maintain/improve ranking given his favored status and younger career stage. Osbourne, as the underdog, may be motivated to upset but lacks supporting recent momentum indicators.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Erceg -600, Osbourne +425	Stephen Erceg	★★★★☆ 82%
Spread	Not explicitly provided for spread, typical UFC spread -1.5 rounds for Erceg around -150	Stephen Erceg -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 -160, Under 1.5 +130	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Stephen Erceg -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 38%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Stephen Erceg to win by decision

Predicted Score: Erceg wins by decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Luis Gurule vs Ode Osbourne – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-05
• Time: 12:40 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

This MMA match between Luis Gurule and Ode Osbourne will be part of UFC Vegas 105. Both fighters are looking to secure a significant victory in the flyweight division, with Gurule entering as a highly touted prospect and Osbourne seeking to elevate his standing in the UFC.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ode Osbourne has an overall record of 12-8-0 (1 NC), with significant striking but inconsistent results. Luis Gurule, currently undefeated at 10-0-0, has shown impressive wrestling and offense skills. His significant strike rate per minute is notably higher at 7.00 compared to Osbourne's 3.26.
• There is no prior head-to-head competition between these fighters, making this their first encounter.
• There are no reported injuries affecting this fight as of now.
• The UFC Apex's close quarters may favor Gurule's wrestling style, potentially neutralizing Osbourne's reach advantage.
• Both fighters are highly motivated; Gurule seeks to prove himself as a UFC prospect, while Osbourne aims to rebound from his recent loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gurule -270, Osbourne +220	Gurule	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Gurule -5.5 -120, Osbourne 5.5 -110	Osbourne +5.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5 -130, Under 2.5 100	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Luis Gurule is predicted to win by decision due to his strong wrestling and higher significant strike rate.

Predicted Score: Gurule by Decision