Match Analysis: Flamengo vs Cruzeiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-02
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
The Brasileirão Serie A Round 26 clash features Flamengo hosting Cruzeiro. Flamengo come into the match with strong recent form and home advantage, while Cruzeiro has a respectable away record but faces key injury concerns.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo have won 4 and drawn 2 of their last 6 matches with 7 goals scored in their last 5 games. They are ranked 3rd away but stronger at home. Cruzeiro's away form is moderate with 5 wins and 4 losses, having lost the recent H2H 2-1 at home against Flamengo.
- Historically, Flamengo lead with 16 wins to Cruzeiro's 9, and 6 draws. The recent encounter was a 2-1 win for Cruzeiro, but Flamengo have generally been dominant.
- Flamengo miss Erick Pulgar, Leo Pereira, Matias Vina, and Michael due to injury. Cruzeiro are missing Fagner and Luis Sinisterra.
- Flamengo enjoy home advantage at Maracanã, a stadium where they have been strong this season. Both teams face pressure to secure points, with Flamengo more motivated to maintain their upper-table position.
- Flamengo, currently higher in the standings, have greater incentive to secure all points to continue title hopes. Cruzeiro, while motivated, are underdogs and might play cautiously.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo: -172, Cruzeiro: 500, Draw: 280 | Flamengo | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Flamengo -1: 108, Cruzeiro +1: -128 | Flamengo -1 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -115, Under 2.25: -105 | Under 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo to win (moneyline), Flamengo -1 spread, Under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 2-0