Match Analysis: South Alabama Jaguars vs Arkansas State Red Wolves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-14
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile
Game Overview
The South Alabama Jaguars, struggling with a 1-5 record, host the Arkansas State Red Wolves, who hold a 2-4 record. South Alabama is favored by roughly 7 points in the spread with a total expected score hovering around 58.5 points. Both teams have faced challenges during their recent games, with South Alabama on a 1-5 losing streak and Arkansas State having an inconsistent 2-4 performance so far this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Alabama is 1-5 overall, with a 2-3 record against the spread in their last five games. Arkansas State is slightly better at 2-4 overall. South Alabama has shown recent struggles but tends to perform better at home. Both teams have seen the totals go over in most of their recent games.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited for this season, but Arkansas State is the underdog despite a slightly better overall season record, indicating close competitiveness with South Alabama. Historical matchup data suggests tight contests but no clear dominance.
- No specific injury reports available for either team at this time, implying no significant impact expected from player absences.
- The game is at South Alabama's home stadium, which could provide home-field advantage. Weather or other external conditions have not been noted as impactful.
- Both teams are looking to break their losing streaks and improve season records, giving them strong motivation to compete intensely.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas State Red Wolves: +240, South Alabama Jaguars: -295 | South Alabama Jaguars | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Arkansas State Red Wolves: +7.5 -110, South Alabama Jaguars: -7.5 -110 | South Alabama Jaguars -7.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 58.5 -110, Under: 58.5 -110 | Over 58.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 58.5 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 58.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
South Alabama is favored to win by a narrow margin given home-field advantage and the moneyline odds. The spread prediction favors South Alabama by approximately 7 points, while total points are expected to be around 58.5, with a slight edge towards the over given recent scoring trends.
Predicted Score: South Alabama Jaguars 31 – Arkansas State Red Wolves 24