Match Analysis: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs UL Monroe Warhawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Brooks Stadium, Conway, South Carolina
Game Overview
The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (2-3, 1-1 Sun Belt) face the UL Monroe Warhawks (3-2, 1-0 Sun Belt) in a Sun Belt Conference matchup. Both teams have struggled at times, with Coastal Carolina showing weaknesses on offense and defense, while UL Monroe relies on a strong rushing attack but a vulnerable pass defense. The match is expected to be close, with UL Monroe favored by 2.5 points as underdogs are Coastal Carolina's moneyline +114 suggests value. The over/under is set around 43.5 to 44.5 points, indicating moderate scoring expectations. Weather is mild with 67Β°F, 45% rain chance and moderate wind.
Key Factors to Consider
- UL Monroe has a stronger record (3-2) and ranks well in rushing yards (188.0 avg, 43rd nationally) but struggles with pass defense (276.8 yds allowed, 129th). Coastal Carolina is 2-3 and ranks poorly in scoring offense (19.0 ppg, 123rd) and pass defense (276.8 yds allowed, 129th). Both teams have bottom-20 rankings in quality drives, indicating inconsistent offensive execution.
- Recent history shows UL Monroe slightly favored with a spread around -2.5 and moneyline at -135, with Coastal Carolina moneyline +114. Their previous notable matchup on Oct 8, 2022, was coastal Carolina winning 28-21 at UL Monroe, but spread was heavier then (-12.5). The teams often produce low to moderate scoring games around 44-58 points total.
- No specific injury reports available from provided data. Both teams appear to have their main starters available, but Coastal Carolina may be impacted by limited offensive effectiveness and possible defensive lapses.
- Game played at Coastal Carolinaβs home Brooks Stadium, giving them home field advantage. Weather is cool with a 45% chance of rain and a wind of 15 mph, possibly slowing down offensive rhythm and favoring a lower scoring game.
- UL Monroe is undefeated in conference play (1-0) and motivated to maintain momentum. Coastal Carolina, at 1-1 in conference, needs this win to stay competitive. Both teams have incentives to win in a tight Sun Belt East race.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: +114, UL Monroe Warhawks: -135 | UL Monroe Warhawks | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: +2.5 -110, UL Monroe Warhawks: -2.5 -110 | UL Monroe Warhawks -2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 43.5 -115, Under: 43.5 -105 | Under 43.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 43.5 37% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 43.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UL Monroe is favored to win this tightly contested game by a small margin due to a better record, stronger rushing attack, and current momentum. The game is expected to be low scoring and close, with UL Monroe covering the 2.5-point spread.
Predicted Score: UL Monroe Warhawks 23 – 17 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers