Match Analysis: Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

The UFC prelims Light heavyweight fight between Jonathan Micallef and Oban Elliott takes place at UFC Perth. Micallef enters as an underdog against Elliott, who is known for his technical striking and fight control. Both fighters bring distinct styles and approaches, with Micallef having worked with UFC legend Robert Whittaker to prepare, and Elliott recognized for his striking range and takedown mix.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jonathan Micallef has faced doubts from sportsbooks in recent fights but has improved training under Robert Whittaker. Oban Elliott has a 12-3 career record with strong striking, good distance management, and effective counters. Elliott’s prior performance showed some underwhelming moments but remains a crafty tactician.
• No direct head-to-head record is available, making this matchup a fresh technical puzzle for both fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the match.
• The fight is held in Perth, Australia, granting Micallef a slight home-crowd advantage. Betting markets currently favor Elliott despite this.
• Micallef is motivated to prove doubters wrong and capitalize on home advantage. Elliott seeks to maintain momentum after a mixed recent performance and demonstrate technical superiority.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jonathan Micallef: 100, Oban Elliott: -120	Oban Elliott	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Jonathan Micallef +3.5: -215, Oban Elliott -3.5: 155	Jonathan Micallef +3.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -245, Under 2.5 rounds: 185	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Oban Elliott -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 57%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 57% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Oban Elliott is favored to win due to his technical striking, fight IQ, and recent ring control, but Micallef’s improvement and home advantage introduce notable upset potential.

Predicted Score: Oban Elliott wins by decision, likely within three rounds

Match Analysis: Seok Hyun Ko vs Oban Elliott – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-21
• Time: 6:30 PM UTC
• Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Azerbaijan

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC welterweight bout features South Korea's Seok Hyun Ko, a rising prospect with an 11-2 record, facing Welsh fighter Oban Elliott, who holds a 12-2 record and comes off a KO win. Both fighters are closely matched in height and weight, and bring strong technical skills with Ko known for his control and versatility, and Elliott for his power and precision finishing. The bout is expected to be a competitive fight with potential ground exchanges given both fighters’ willingness to adapt styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Seok Hyun Ko has demonstrated strong control in fights, having recently won a unanimous decision over a tough opponent. Oban Elliott possesses finishing power with a recent KO win and three consecutive UFC victories, indicating strong momentum.
• No previous head-to-head meetings exist between Seok Hyun Ko and Oban Elliott, making this an intriguing first encounter.
• No reports of injuries affecting either fighter going into this bout.
• The fight was rescheduled and relocated to Baku Crystal Hall, Azerbaijan. Elliott’s prior visa issues delayed his schedule but he appears ready now. Training camps and preparation time seem adequate for both.
• Ko aims to make a strong UFC debut to quickly climb the welterweight ranks, embracing the challenge Elliott represents. Elliott is motivated to continue his UFC winning streak and capitalize on his finishing abilities.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Oban_Elliott: -500, Seok_Hyun_Ko: 380	Oban Elliott	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Oban_Elliott_-3.5: -195, Seok_Hyun_Ko_+3.5: 140	Oban Elliott to win by more than 3.5 rounds/points equivalent	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over_2.5_rounds: -160, Under_2.5_rounds: 124	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Oban Elliott -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 34%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Oban Elliott is favored due to his finishing power and current momentum, but Seok Hyun Ko’s control and adaptation skills make this a potentially close contest. The fight may go to a decision or a late stoppage, with Elliott as a slight favorite.

Predicted Score: Oban Elliott wins by TKO in round 3

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Muhammadjon Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad Prediction	Muhammadjon Naimov Win	-278	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Seok Hyun Ko vs. Oban Elliott Prediction	Oban Elliott Win	-500	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev Prediction	Curtis Blaydes Win	-238	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +132

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $46.34