Match Analysis: Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, AUS

Game Overview

Welterweight bout between Jonathan Micallef (8-1) and Oban Elliott (12-3). Both fighters are similarly sized, Elliott has more experience with 15 fights versus Micallef's 9, and Elliott is favored by bookmakers despite a recent loss.

Key Factors to Consider

• Oban Elliott holds a 12-3 record with solid UFC experience but recently lost by unanimous decision to Seok Hyun Ko, indicating potential vulnerability. Jonathan Micallef is unbeaten at 8-1, showing strong recent form and possibly rising confidence.
• No previous head-to-head matchups between Micallef and Elliott, making tactical adjustments and adaptability important factors.
• No publicly reported injuries for either fighter leading into the matchup.
• Fight is hosted in Perth, Australia, closer to Micallef’s likely fan base which might aid his motivation. Weather and travel issues appear neutral.
• Micallef is motivated to prove himself against a more established competitor, while Elliott aims to rebound quickly from a recent loss, applying psychological pressure both ways.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jonathan Micallef: +100, Oban Elliott: -120	Oban Elliott	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Jonathan Micallef +3.5: -215, Oban Elliott -3.5: +155	Oban Elliott -3.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -245, Under 2.5: +185	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Oban Elliott 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Oban Elliott at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Oban Elliott to win by decision

Predicted Score: Oban Elliott wins by decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Seok Hyun Ko vs Oban Elliott – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-21
• Time: 6:30 PM UTC
• Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan

Game Overview

The upcoming welterweight MMA bout features Seok Hyun Ko of South Korea against Oban Elliott from Wales in a UFC on ABC 8 event. Both fighters have strong records, with Ko at 11-2 and Elliott at 12-2, representing contrasting styles: Ko relies on fight control and endurance with recent wins by decision, while Elliott is known for his power and KO finishes. This bout will be held in Baku's Crystal Hall with no championship belts at stake, making it a high-stakes contest for their UFC trajectories.

Key Factors to Consider

• Seok Hyun Ko is coming off a unanimous decision win over a tough opponent, showing tactical maturity and control. Oban Elliott has demonstrated finishing ability with a recent KO victory. Both have similar fight experience, but Elliott’s power and precision may give him an edge in early exchanges.
• Seok Hyun Ko and Oban Elliott have no prior head-to-head encounters, meaning no direct matchup data is available to influence predictive models.
• No reported injuries have been disclosed publicly for either fighter leading up to the contest, suggesting both are expected to be in peak condition.
• The fight being on neutral ground in Baku, Azerbaijan, negates any home advantage. The rescheduling of the fight, confirmed on May 25, 2025, does not appear to have affected either fighter’s preparation significantly.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to impress at this UFC event to climb the welterweight rankings, with Ko aiming to leverage his recent strong performance and Elliott looking to capitalize on his knockout power.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Oban Elliott: -500, Seok Hyun Ko: 380	Oban Elliott	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Oban Elliott: -3.5 -195, Seok Hyun Ko: +3.5 140	Oban Elliott -3.5	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -160, Under: 2.5 124	Under 2.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Oban Elliott -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 39%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 39% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Oban Elliott is favored to win due to his higher moneyline odds and demonstrated finishing power. While Seok Hyun Ko’s durability and fight IQ make a competitive bout likely, Elliott’s aggressive style and recent KO form give him an estimated edge with a close but decisive victory anticipated.

Predicted Score: Oban Elliott wins by KO/TKO in Round 2

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – June 21, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Tofiq Musayev vs. Myktybek Orolbai Prediction	Under 1.5	195	112%
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Mohammed Usman Prediction	Under 2.5	180	96%
Seok Hyun Ko vs. Oban Elliott Prediction	Under 2.5	124	39%

Combined Odds: +1750 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $370.05

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Irina Alekseeva vs. Klaudia Syguła Prediction	Irina Alekseeva Win	-275	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Seok Hyun Ko vs. Oban Elliott Prediction	Oban Elliott Win	-500	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta Prediction	Nazim Sadykhov Win	-485	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -103

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $39.48