Match Analysis: Nurullo Aliev vs Shem Rock – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 22, 2025
- Time: 4:15 PM UTC
- Location: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar
Game Overview
Nurullo Aliev, the undefeated Tajik Eagle with a perfect 10-0 record (2-0 in UFC), faces England/Ireland's Shaqueme 'Shem' Rock in his UFC debut. This lightweight bout features a significant contrast in experience levels, with Aliev representing the established UFC prospect and Rock making his long-awaited promotional debut after an impressive 12-1-1 record outside the octagon. The matchup showcases two distinct fighting styles, with Aliev known for a more measured, control-oriented approach, while Rock projects an aggressive finishing mentality.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nurullo Aliev maintains an unblemished 10-0 professional record with notable wins over Joe Solecki, Josh Wick, and Rafael Alves. His UFC record stands at 2-0, establishing him as a legitimate prospect in the lightweight division. Shem Rock's 12-1-1 record demonstrates consistent success outside the UFC, with eight submissions among his victories and an elite-level grappling foundation. Rock's only loss and draw suggest occasional inconsistency, while Aliev's perfection indicates technical mastery and competitive discipline.
- This is the first meeting between these fighters. No direct historical data exists. However, stylistically, Aliev's wrestling-heavy, control-based approach directly contrasts with Rock's aggressive submission finisher mentality. Rock has publicly criticized Aliev's 'boring' defensive style, suggesting he sees opportunities to exploit through aggressive striking and grappling exchanges rather than accepting positional control.
- No injury information available in provided sources. Both fighters appear healthy for competition.
- Rock's UFC debut adds psychological complexity—both motivation to prove himself and potential inexperience against elite competition. Aliev benefits from established UFC experience and familiarity with high-level opponents. The Qatar venue is neutral territory for both fighters. Rock's public trash-talk may indicate psychological confidence but could also suggest concern about stylistic matchups.
- Shem Rock enters his UFC debut with significant motivation to make an immediate impact and validate his professional record against elite competition. Nurullo Aliev seeks to extend his undefeated streak and continue climbing the lightweight rankings. Rock's aggressive rhetoric ('take his chin off,' 'snipe him') indicates high psychological investment in this performance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aliev: -290 | Rock: +235 | Nurullo Aliev | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Aliev -3.5 (-120) | Rock +3.5 (-110) | Aliev -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-188) | Under 2.5 (145) | Under 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nurullo Aliev 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 72% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 72% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 49.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nurullo Aliev is favored to win this matchup, with the -290 moneyline reflecting his perfect record, UFC experience, and proven wrestling credentials. However, the 235 odds for Shem Rock suggest legitimate upset potential given his submission expertise and aggressive style. The stylistic matchup favors Aliev's control wrestling against Rock's submission attempts, but Rock's elite grappling background and finishing mentality present meaningful threats. Expect a competitive bout with Aliev winning via decision or control wrestling.
Predicted Score: Nurullo Aliev wins via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28). Expected fight duration: Full 3 rounds with dominant wrestling control from Aliev, limited finishing opportunities for Rock despite submission attempts.