Match Analysis: Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursultan Ruziboev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursultan Ruziboev are set to face off in a middleweight bout at UFC Vegas 106. Stoltzfus holds a 16-6-0 record, while Ruziboev boasts a 35-9-2 record (2 NC). The odds favor Ruziboev heavily, with a moneyline of -298 compared to Stoltzfus's +240.

Key Factors to Consider

• Stoltzfus lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute with a 44% accuracy rate, while Ruziboev lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute with the same accuracy rate. Ruziboev has a slight edge in defense, absorbing 3.78 strikes per minute while defending 50% of shots, compared to Stoltzfus's 3.29 strikes absorbed with a 46% defense rate.
• There is no head-to-head data available for this matchup.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The bout is at neutral ground, UFC Apex, which may not provide a significant advantage to either fighter.
• Both fighters are motivated by the prospect of winning, but Ruziboev's recent form and experience may give him an edge in terms of confidence and strategy.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Stoltzfus: +240, Ruziboev: -298	Nursultan Ruziboev	High
Spread	Stoltzfus: 3.5 (+175), Ruziboev: -3.5 (-240)	Take Ruziboev -3.5, but with moderate confidence due to the spread.	Moderate
Over/under	over: 1.5 (-105), under: 1.5 (-125)	Over 1.5 rounds	High

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Nursultan Ruziboev -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nursultan Ruziboev is favored to win due to his experience and recent form.

Predicted Score: Nursultan Ruziboev win by decision

Match Analysis: Nursultan Ruziboev vs Eric McConico – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-23
• Time: 11:45 PM UTC
• Location: Seattle, Washington

Game Overview

Nursultan Ruziboev and Eric McConico are set to face off in a middleweight bout at UFC Fight Night 252. Ruziboev is favored with odds of -275, indicating a strong favorite status. McConico, with odds of +235, is considered the underdog.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nursultan Ruziboev has shown strong skills in his previous fights, which may give him an edge over Eric McConico. McConico has a record of 6-2-1, with three wins by KO, two by submission, and one by decision.
• There is no prior head-to-head match between Ruziboev and McConico, making this a first encounter.
• No significant injury reports have been noted for either fighter.
• The fight being in Seattle might not significantly impact either fighter, as both are accustomed to competing in various environments.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Ruziboev looking to maintain his winning streak and McConico aiming to upset the favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-275 for Ruziboev, +235 for McConico	Nursultan Ruziboev	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Not available	Nursultan Ruziboev	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over_under	Over 1.5: -115, Under 1.5: -115	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Nursultan Ruziboev is likely to win due to his favored status and strong past performances.

Predicted Score: Decision or late-round finish in favor of Ruziboev.