Match Analysis: Genoa vs Fiorentina – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Game Overview
Genoa and Fiorentina face off in a crucial Serie A match with both teams struggling near the bottom of the table. Fiorentina are slight favorites but both sides have low scoring rates, hinting at a tight, low-scoring contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Genoa have won only 1 of their last 10 matches and are 0-3 in their last five games. Fiorentina have a 0-6-4 record with similarly poor scoring, having netted only 7 goals in 10 games. Both teams struggle offensively, which lowers scoring expectations.
- Fiorentina have been dominant historically at this venue, unbeaten in the last nine meetings against Genoa and winners in the last three trips to Genoa. This gives Fiorentina a psychological edge despite current form challenges.
- No critical injury details are currently available from the sources; both teams enter with their debutants adaptive to Serie A which might impact rhythm.
- Public betting heavily favors Genoa at 86% of bets, potentially skewing odds. The match venue, Luigi Ferraris, traditionally favors the home side, but Genoa's poor form diminishes this advantage.
- Both teams face relegation pressure, enhancing the importance of this match. The winner not only gains points but significantly boosts survival aspirations, likely causing cautious and defensive play from both sides.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fiorentina: 169, Genoa: 193, Draw: 195 | Draw | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | Fiorentina: -120, Genoa: 100 | Genoa +0 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2 goals: -115, Under 2 goals: -105 | Under 2 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Draw 18% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 37% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Draw
Predicted Score: 0-0