Match Analysis: Corinthians vs Ceará – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Arena Corinthians
Game Overview
The match between Corinthians (home) and Ceará (away) is a Brasileirão Serie A fixture with Corinthians favored based on historical dominance and current odds. Both teams have experienced mixed form recently, but Corinthians has a clearer edge in head-to-head records and recent performance statistics.
Key Factors to Consider
- Corinthians has been inconsistent in recent matches with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games, averaging 0.6 goals scored and conceding 0.8 per match. Ceará similarly has moderate form with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5, averaging 1 goal scored and conceded per match. Corinthians' home advantage and defensive solidity are key strengths.
- In their recent 6 matchups, Corinthians has won 67% (4 out of 6) of the games against Ceará. Overall head-to-head with 19 games shows Corinthians with 8 wins, Ceará with 5 wins, and 6 draws. Goal scoring in these encounters tends to be moderate, with several matches ending with narrow margins. The home side, Corinthians, has a better historical record against Ceará.
- No specific injury data provided in the current information, suggesting potentially full or near-full squads for both sides, which implies expected competitive performance without key absences.
- No major external factors such as weather, suspensions, or venue changes impacting the match were indicated. The game is played at Corinthians’ home ground, giving them the typical home support advantage.
- Corinthians, positioned higher in the league, will be motivated to secure points to maintain or improve their standing, while Ceará will look for an upset to boost their position and morale late in the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Corinthians: -140, Draw: 241, Ceará: 411 | Corinthians win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Corinthians: -0.75 -103, Ceará: 75 -117 | Corinthians -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -144, Under 2: 124 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Corinthians -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Corinthians are predicted to win the match due to superior recent head-to-head results, home advantage, and the current moneyline odds favoring them. The game is expected to be competitive but with Corinthians holding control.
Predicted Score: 1-0