Match Analysis: Tarleton State Texans vs Texas A&M-CC Islanders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 9, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Unknown (home venue assumed)
Game Overview
A neutral-site or home contest between two struggling mid-major programs. Both teams enter with recent losses and questions on both ends of the court, with Tarleton State 0-2 (two blowout road losses) and Texas A&M-CC 1-1 (coming off a 69-58 road loss). Neither has a discernible edge in form, making this a true toss-up for oddsmakers.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tarleton State is 0-2, having lost by 36 points at LSU and a previous road loss; their defense is conceding 96 points per game. Texas A&M-CC is 1-1, with a home win and an 11-point road loss at SMU, conceding just 62.5 points per game. Offensive output is similar (70.5 ppg for Texas A&M-CC, 68.0 for Tarleton State), but Texas A&M-CC is far better defensively so far this season[2][3].
- Head-to-head data is not available in the search results.
- No injury information is available in the search results.
- No major external factors (travel, venue, weather) are noted in the search results.
- Both teams are hungry for a win after early-season struggles. Tarleton State is winless and at home, possibly increasing their motivation to avoid an 0-3 start. Texas A&M-CC will look to bounce back from a road loss.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tarleton State -110, Texas A&M-CC -110 | Texas A&M-CC Islanders | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
| Spread | Tarleton State -1.5 (-105), Texas A&M-CC +1.5 (-115) | Texas A&M-CC Islanders +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 142.5 (-105), Under 142.5 (-115) | Under 142.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas A&M-CC Islanders -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 142.5 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 142.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas A&M-CC has a slight statistical edge, especially on defense, but Tarleton State’s home (or equivalent) advantage and the even betting lines make this a true coin-flip. The best value lies in the under, as both defenses—despite Tarleton’s poor numbers—are more likely to dictate a slower, lower-scoring game than the total suggests.
Predicted Score: Texas A&M-CC Islanders 68, Tarleton State Texans 67