Como host Cagliari in a Serie A clash where Como are clear favorites, sitting 7th with 17 points and just one loss all season. Cagliari are struggling, having lost their last two matches and showing defensive frailties, especially in the second half. The match is expected to be a test of Como's consistency against a fading away side.
Key Factors to Consider
Como are in excellent form, undefeated since round two and recently held Napoli to a 0-0 draw. They have a solid defensive record and have scored in every home game this season. Cagliari have lost their last two, including a 2-0 defeat at Lazio, and have conceded in the second half in six consecutive Serie A matches.
Como won the last meeting 3-1, and have generally dominated recent encounters. Cagliari have not won at Como in their last five visits.
No major injuries reported for either side. Both teams are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
Como have a strong home record and are playing in front of a supportive crowd. Cagliari have struggled for consistency on the road and lack the stamina to maintain defensive discipline in the second half.
Como are aiming to break into the top six and are in a strong position to do so. Cagliari are fighting to avoid relegation and are under pressure after a poor run of results.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: -204, draw: 345, away: 525
Como
★★★★☆ 74%
Spread
home: -1 -120, away: 1 100
Como -1
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
over: 2.5 -112, under: 2.5 -108
Under 2.5
★★★★☆ 70%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Como 1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.5 35%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Como are the clear favorites and should win this match. Their superior form, defensive organization, and Cagliari's second-half defensive lapses point to a home victory. The game is likely to be low-scoring, with Como controlling possession and Cagliari struggling to create clear chances.
Lecce hosts Hellas Verona in a Serie A clash between two struggling sides. Lecce sits 15th, while Hellas Verona is 19th, both fighting to avoid relegation. Recent form is poor for both, with Lecce winless in five home matches and Verona winless in five away. The H2H record is tight, with Verona edging recent meetings, but Lecce won the last encounter at home. Both teams are low-scoring and defensively vulnerable, setting up a tense, low-event contest.
Key Factors to Consider
Lecce averages 0.50 goals per home game and 1.30 conceded, with only one win in their last 10 home matches. Verona averages 0.60 goals per away game and 1.40 conceded, with two wins in their last 10 away. Both teams have struggled to score and keep clean sheets, with Verona failing to win any of their last five away matches.
Verona leads the H2H with 5 wins in the last 10 meetings, Lecce has 3 wins, and 2 draws. Verona has won 5 of the last 8 H2Hs, but Lecce won the last meeting at home 1-0. At Via del Mare, Verona has won 3 of the last 5 H2Hs, Lecce 2.
No major injuries reported for either side; both teams are at full strength.
Lecce’s home form is abysmal, with only one win in 10 home games. Verona’s away form is also poor, but they have a slight edge in H2H at this venue. The match is played in November, with no weather concerns. Both teams are under pressure to avoid relegation.
Both teams are fighting for survival, but Lecce’s home struggles and Verona’s recent H2H edge at this venue give Verona a slight psychological advantage. Lecce’s motivation is high to end their home win drought, but their form suggests they may struggle.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: 174, away: 195, draw: 188
Draw
★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread
home: -118, away: -102
Lecce 0
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
over: -112, under: -108
Under 2
★★★★☆ 74%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Draw 9%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2 43%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 43% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 45.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hellas Verona to win or draw (Double Chance) offers the highest EV, but for single-outcome markets, the safest high-EV play is Under 2.5 goals. Both teams are low-scoring, defensively leaky, and recent H2Hs have seen few goals. The odds on Under 2.5 are attractive given the statistical profile.