Match Analysis: UCLA Bruins vs Pepperdine Waves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 3:30 AM UTC
- Location: Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, California
Game Overview
The No. 12 UCLA Bruins (1-0) host the Pepperdine Waves (1-0) in a highly lopsided matchup with UCLA favored by 27.5 points in a non-conference game at Pauley Pavilion. Both teams started the season with wins, but UCLA has shown far superior defensive capabilities, while Pepperdine's defense has been notably weaker. The total points line is set near 152.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- UCLA ranks 22nd nationally in defense last season, allowing 65.2 PPG, while Pepperdine struggled defensively, conceding about 76.6 PPG. Offensively both teams score around the low 70s. UCLAβs stronger defense and deeper roster indicate control of pace and scoring.
- UCLA has dominated the recent series with Pepperdine, winning the last seven meetings, including a 100-53 blowout in their last meeting in 2022. Pepperdine has covered the spread only once in these matchups.
- No significant injuries reported for either side affecting key players relevant to this game.
- Playing at home in Pauley Pavilion gives UCLA a strong advantage with home crowd support. No notable travel or scheduling disadvantages for UCLA.
- UCLA, ranked and seeking to assert dominance early in the season, is motivated to start strong to build momentum. Pepperdine aims to avoid a blowout but faces uphill battle.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -30000, away: 4000 | UCLA Bruins | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | home: -115, away: -105 | UCLA Bruins -27.5 | β β β β β 88% |
| Over/under | over: -110, under: -110 | Under 152.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UCLA Bruins -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 34% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 152.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UCLA to win outright and cover the spread; total points to go under 152.5
Predicted Score: UCLA Bruins 83 – Pepperdine Waves 60