Match Analysis: Buffalo Bulls vs Green Bay Phoenix – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-07
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Alumni Arena
Game Overview
Buffalo Bulls (1-0, improved from 9-22 last season) host the struggling Green Bay Phoenix (0-1, 4-28 last season). Both teams have poor defensive efficiency, but Buffalo is favored at home, buoyed by a big performance from Sabol last game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Buffalo is slightly better on offense (239th NCAA PPG) and slightly worse on defense (355th NCAA PPG allowed), while Green Bay ranks even lower offensively (283rd NCAA PPG) and is only marginally better defensively (348th NCAA PPG allowed). Both teams are turnover-prone, but Green Bay ranks slightly better in assist-to-turnover and overall turnovers, which could matter in a pace-up game[6].
- No recent head-to-head results. Buffalo is 1-0 this season, including a 32-point game from Sabol, while Green Bay is 0-1 and coming off a tough season[1][3].
- No notable injuries reported in available data.
- No major external factors noted. The venue is Buffalo's home court, adding a normal home advantage.
- Buffalo is likely looking to build momentum after a win; Green Bay seeks its first victory under a new coach, but their recent form is discouraging[1][2].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buffalo -320, Green Bay +245 | Buffalo Bulls | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Buffalo -6.5 -114, Green Bay +6.5 -106 | Buffalo -6.5 | β β β ββ 54% |
| Over/under | Over 153.5 -110, Under 153.5 -114 | Over 153.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls -15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 153.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 153.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Buffalo's superior recent form and home-court advantage are more significant than Green Bay's slightly better turnover numbers. Given both teams' porous defenses and Buffalo's slightly better offensive firepower, expect a high-scoring game where Buffalo pulls away late.
Predicted Score: Buffalo 84, Green Bay 76