Match Analysis: USC Trojans vs Seton Hall Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Tuesday, November 25, 2025
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Maui, Hawaii
Game Overview
Two undefeated powerhouses clash in the Maui Invitational with significant implications for both programs. USC (5-0) enters as the slight favorite with elite offensive firepower, while Seton Hall (6-0) brings impressive defensive credentials and momentum from a dominant upset victory over NC State. This matchup features a compelling contrast between USC's high-octane scoring attack (94.4 PPG, 4th in nation) and Seton Hall's defensive prowess (17th in defensive efficiency, 35.1% field goal defense). The game carries tournament implications and serves as a barometer for both teams' Elite Eight potential.
Key Factors to Consider
- USC averages 94.4 points per game on 47% field goal shooting, 36.8% from three-point range, and 70% from the free throw line. The Trojans are 4th nationally in scoring offense and 41st in offensive efficiency. Seton Hall averages 75 points per game (276th nationally) but demonstrates elite defensive metrics: 17th in defensive efficiency, 35.1% field goal defense (12th), 25% forced turnover percentage (7th), and 34.3% two-point defense (3rd). USC shot 44% from the field and 48% from three in their narrow 70-67 victory over Boise State, while Seton Hall dominated NC State with 52% field goal shooting in an 85-74 upset. USC has won six consecutive day games against non-conference opponents, while Seton Hall has won six consecutive games overall but struggles in day games against non-AP-ranked opponents, losing 11 of 12 such matchups.
- In their all-time series, each team has won once. USC secured a 71-63 victory in the most recent meeting on November 23, 2023, at the Rady Children's Invitational. Seton Hall won their previous head-to-head encounter. The neutral court setting in Hawaii provides neither team with a significant home-court advantage.
- No significant injury information is available in the provided data. Both teams appear to be at full strength for this matchup.
- The neutral court setting in Maui eliminates home-court advantage considerations. USC is playing on a quick turnaround after their Monday victory over Boise State, potentially affecting fatigue levels. Seton Hall's slow pace (324th in adjusted tempo at 67.2 possessions per game) contrasts sharply with the tournament environment, which typically favors higher-paced play. The Maui Invitational carries prestige and tournament experience value for both programs.
- Both teams enter undefeated and seek to maintain perfect records in tournament play. For USC, this represents a chance to validate their elite offensive system against elite defense. For Seton Hall, an upset victory would significantly elevate their tournament profile and validate their defensive-first approach. The psychological momentum from Seton Hall's dominant second-half performance (50 points) against NC State provides confidence, while USC's narrow escape against Boise State may raise questions about consistency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | USC -360 / Seton Hall +280 | USC Trojans Moneyline | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | USC -7.5 -110 / Seton Hall +7.5 -110 | USC Trojans -7.5 (Cover the Spread) | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 147.5 -110 / Under 147.5 -110 | Under 147.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | USC Trojans -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 147.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 147.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
USC Trojans are projected to win 79-71, covering the spread with a final margin of approximately 8 points. While Seton Hall presents a formidable defensive challenge and carries legitimate upset potential due to their undefeated record and defensive rankings, USC's elite offensive efficiency, superior day-game record against non-conference opponents, and historical advantage over Seton Hall should prevail. The key determining factor will be whether Seton Hall can maintain their defensive intensity while managing USC's scoring volume, or whether USC's offensive elite status overwhelms Seton Hall's defense-first approach. The game's tempo will significantly impact the outcomeβif played at Seton Hall's slower pace, the game remains competitive; at a higher pace favoring USC, the Trojans should pull away.
Predicted Score: USC Trojans 79, Seton Hall Pirates 71