Match Analysis: Ohio State Buckeyes vs Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Tuesday, November 25, 2025
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Value City Arena, Columbus, Ohio
Game Overview
The undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) host the struggling Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers (1-5) in a heavily lopsided college basketball matchup. Ohio State enters as dominant favorites with a 26.5-point spread, reflecting their superior performance and record. Mount St. Mary's arrives as a massive underdog, having lost three consecutive games and maintaining a negative point differential of -64 through their first six games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ohio State has demonstrated exceptional form, winning all five games with an average point differential of +98 points per game (442 points for vs 344 against). Mount St. Mary's has struggled significantly, winning only one of their first five games with an offensive output of 395 points against 459 allowed, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. The Mountaineers' 1-5 record includes a 3-game losing streak, while Ohio State maintains a 5-game winning streak.
- No previous head-to-head records are available in the search results, suggesting this may be the first meeting between these programs in the current season or recent years.
- No injury information is provided in the available search results, limiting assessment of roster availability for either team.
- The game is played at Ohio State's home court (Value City Arena), providing the Buckeyes with a significant home-court advantage. This environment typically boosts team performance and confidence.
- Ohio State seeks to maintain their perfect record and continue their dominant winning streak against a significantly weaker opponent. Mount St. Mary's faces pressure to secure a quality win despite their recent struggles and will be motivated to prove their competitiveness.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mt. St. Mary's +3000 | Ohio State -10000 | Ohio State Buckeyes | ★★★★★ 98% |
| Spread | Mt. St. Mary's +26.5 (-108) | Ohio State -26.5 (-112) | Ohio State -26.5 | 52.9-60% |
| Over/under | Over 148.5 (-105) | Under 148.5 (-115) | Over 148.5 | 55-60% (based on historical trends showing 2-3 OVER outcomes in Ohio State's recent games) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 148.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 148.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ohio State is projected to win decisively. Analytical models indicate a 97.5% probability of an Ohio State victory versus 2.5% for Mount St. Mary's. The 26.5-point spread is expected to be covered comfortably by the Buckeyes, with some analysts suggesting the true spread may be closer to 24.5-25 points.
Predicted Score: Ohio State 83-62 Mount St. Mary's (Ohio State by 21 points)