Match Analysis: Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-24
- Time: 12:45 AM UTC
- Location: Subaru Park
Game Overview
This Eastern Conference Semifinal playoff match pits Philadelphia Union against New York City FC at Subaru Park. Both teams are in strong form, with Philadelphia Union having won their last regular season meeting 1-0 and NYCFC advancing with a strong playoff performance. The match is win-or-go-home, adding significant pressure and intensity.
Key Factors to Consider
- Philadelphia Union have shown solid defensive organization and home advantage, with a recent 1-0 win over NYCFC in October. NYCFC have been clinical in attack, highlighted by NicolΓ‘s FernΓ‘ndez's recent brace in the playoffs. Union's passing accuracy (70.5%) is lower than NYCFC's (82.3%), but they have more blocked shots (4.5 vs 2), indicating a resilient defense.
- Recent meetings are tightly contested: Philadelphia Union won 1-0 on October 4, 2025, NYCFC won 1-0 on April 12, 2025, and Philadelphia won 1-5 on September 18, 2024. The last five games show a mix of narrow wins and high-scoring matches, with Philadelphia holding a slight edge in recent form.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads appear to be at full strength for this crucial playoff fixture.
- The match is at Subaru Park, Philadelphia's home ground, which is known for its strong atmosphere and home advantage. Weather conditions are expected to be mild, with no significant impact on play.
- Both teams are highly motivated, as this is a win-or-go-home playoff match. Philadelphia Union have the added motivation of home support, while NYCFC are looking to continue their playoff momentum after a strong performance in the previous round.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York City FC: 315, Philadelphia Union: -122, Draw: 286 | Philadelphia Union | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | New York City FC: 50 102, Philadelphia Union: -0.5 -122 | Philadelphia Union -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -123, Under: 2.5 103 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Union 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Union are favored to win this match due to their home advantage, recent form, and strong defensive record. However, NYCFC's attacking prowess and playoff experience make them a dangerous opponent. The match is likely to be close, with a narrow win for Philadelphia Union.
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Union 1-0 New York City FC