Match Analysis: Toledo Rockets vs Ball State Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio
Game Overview
The Toledo Rockets (6-4, 4-2 MAC) host the Ball State Cardinals (4-6, 3-3 MAC) in a crucial late-season MAC matchup. Toledo enters as heavy favorites, with a dominant defense and a strong home record, while Ball State struggles offensively and has been inconsistent on the road. The game is set for Saturday, November 22, 2025, at 2 p.m. ET (7 p.m. UTC) and will be broadcast on ESPN+.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toledo averages 32.0 points per game (ranked 42nd nationally) and allows only 13.4 points per game (ranked 4th nationally), showcasing a balanced and efficient offense paired with a stifling defense. Ball State averages just 15.7 points per game (ranked 133rd) and allows 27.5 points per game (ranked 87th), indicating significant offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities. Toledo is 4-1 in their last 5 games and 4-1 ATS in the same span, while Ball State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Recent history favors Toledo, who have dominated Ball State in recent matchups. Toledoβs defense has consistently limited Ball Stateβs scoring, and the Rockets have covered the spread in most of their recent meetings. Toledoβs home-field advantage at the Glass Bowl further amplifies their edge.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both teams are expected to field their full rosters.
- Weather conditions at kickoff are expected to be mild (45Β°F, 0% rain, light wind), which should not significantly impact the game. The venue, Glass Bowl, is a strong home-field advantage for Toledo, with a loud and supportive crowd.
- Toledo is playing for a potential MAC Championship berth and a strong finish to the season, while Ball State is fighting to avoid a losing record and secure bowl eligibility. Toledoβs motivation is higher, given their playoff aspirations and home-field advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals: 1800, Toledo Rockets: -5000 | Toledo Rockets | β β β β β 98% |
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals: 27.5 -108, Toledo Rockets: -27.5 -112 | Toledo Rockets -27.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 47.5 -112, Under: 47.5 -108 | Under 47.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 47.5 44% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at 44% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 48% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toledo is heavily favored to win this game, with a predicted victory by a significant margin. The Rocketsβ superior defense and offensive consistency should overwhelm Ball Stateβs struggling offense. The game is expected to be low-scoring, with Toledoβs defense limiting Ball Stateβs scoring opportunities.
Predicted Score: Toledo Rockets 31, Ball State Cardinals 14