Match Analysis: Missouri St Bears vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Great Southern Bank Arena, Springfield, MO
Game Overview
Missouri State Bears host UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros in a non-conference NCAA basketball matchup. Both teams enter with identical 2-2 records, seeking to climb above .500. Missouri State is coming off a road loss, while UTRGV is fresh off a dominant home win. The game features contrasting offensive styles and defensive vulnerabilities, with Missouri State favored slightly by the oddsmakers.
Key Factors to Consider
- Missouri State averages 82.0 points per game, shooting 45.8% from the field (180th nationally), 69.8% from the free throw line, and committing 17.3 fouls per game. They assist on 17.5 baskets per game (79th nationally) and grab 43.0 rebounds per contest. UTRGV averages 87.8 points per game (76th nationally), shooting 50.2% from the field and an impressive 46.2% from three-point range. They average 35.3 rebounds and 18.5 assists per game, but commit 19.8 fouls per game. Both teams have shown offensive firepower but also defensive lapses.
- No recent head-to-head matchups are available in the provided data. Both teams have played similar competition, with Missouri State struggling on the road and UTRGV showing strength at home.
- No significant injuries reported for either team in the available sources. Both squads are expected to field their full rosters.
- Missouri State has home-court advantage at Great Southern Bank Arena, a factor that could influence the game's outcome. The Bears have a 2-0 home record, while UTRGV is 2-0 on the road. Weather and travel are not significant factors for this indoor matchup.
- Both teams are motivated to improve their records and build momentum for the season. Missouri State seeks to bounce back from a recent loss, while UTRGV aims to extend its winning streak and prove its offensive prowess against a stronger opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri St Bears: -125, UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: 105 | Missouri St Bears | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Missouri St Bears: -1.5 -110, UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: 1.5 -110 | Missouri St Bears -1.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 150.5 -105, Under: 150.5 -115 | Over 150.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri St Bears 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 150.5 2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 150.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Missouri State is favored to win this matchup, with a slight edge in home-court advantage and defensive rebounding. UTRGV's high-powered offense could keep the game close, but Missouri State's consistency and home record give them the upper hand. The game is expected to be competitive, with Missouri State likely to edge out a narrow victory.
Predicted Score: Missouri State Bears 78, UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 72