Match Analysis: Tennessee Volunteers vs North Florida Ospreys – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-12
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, Tennessee
Game Overview
The No. 20 Tennessee Volunteers host the North Florida Ospreys in a non-conference matchup. Tennessee is off to a 2-0 start, having dominated their first two opponents, while North Florida is 0-1 after a heavy road loss to Florida. The game is expected to be a showcase of Tennessee's superior talent and depth, with the Volunteers heavily favored to win and cover a large spread.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tennessee has been dominant offensively and defensively, averaging 85.5 points per game and allowing just 50.8 points per game. North Florida struggled in their opener, scoring only 64 points against Florida. Tennessee's offense is led by Nate Ament (20.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG), while North Florida's top scorer is K. Oriol (19.0 PPG).
- There is no recent head-to-head history between these two teams. Tennessee is ranked 20th nationally, while North Florida is unranked and ranked in the 300s on major analytics sites.
- Nate Ament (Tennessee) is listed with an ankle injury, and Bishop Boswell (Tennessee) has a foot injury. Both are probable to play, but their status could impact Tennessee's performance.
- The game is being played at Thompson-Boling Arena, a strong home court advantage for Tennessee. The matchup is part of Tennessee's early season schedule, with the Volunteers looking to maintain their unbeaten record.
- Tennessee is motivated to continue their strong start and improve their national ranking. North Florida is looking to bounce back from a tough loss and prove they can compete against higher-level competition.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee -32, North Florida +40.5 | Tennessee | ★★★★★ 98% |
| Spread | Tennessee -40.5 -110, North Florida +40.5 -110 | Tennessee covers | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 153.5 -110, Under 153.5 -110 | Over | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 153.5 43% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 153.5 at 43% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tennessee is expected to win comfortably, with most analysts predicting a blowout victory. The Volunteers should cover the large spread, and the game is likely to go over the total points line due to Tennessee's high-scoring offense.
Predicted Score: Tennessee 88, North Florida 55