Match Analysis: Norwich City vs Millwall – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Carrow Road, Norwich
Game Overview
A competitive EFL Championship matchup where historically Norwich City has dominated Millwall in both results and goals scored. Norwich looks to maintain home advantage against a Millwall side that has shown mixed recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Norwich City has won 3 of their last 5 matches with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, showing a potent offense but some defensive vulnerabilities. Millwall has a solid recent record with 4 wins out of 5 but lower goal scoring (1.0/game) and conceding 1.2/game, playing a more defensive style.
- In the last 15 meetings, Norwich won 9, Millwall 3, and 3 drawn. Norwich averages 2.1 goals per game against Millwallβs 1.3. The teams have seen a relatively high goal average (~3.5 goals per game) historically, but recent seasons lean towards Norwich dominance, especially at home.
- No publicly reported major injuries impacting starting XI or key players for either team at this time.
- Home advantage at Carrow Road favors Norwich. Weather and pitch conditions expected normal for early August; no major disruptions expected.
- Both teams are motivated early in the season; Norwich aims to establish top-table credentials after recent Championship finishes, while Millwall looks for an upset to gain points away from home.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Norwich City: -102, Millwall: 270, Draw: 220 | Norwich City | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Norwich City -0.5: 102, Millwall +50: -122 | Norwich City -0.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -118, Under 2.25: -102 | Under 2.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Norwich City 7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Norwich City to win on the moneyline with a small but clear advantage given home form, superior recent record against Millwall, and better goal-scoring stats.
Predicted Score: 2-1