Match Analysis: Northern Illinois Huskies vs Ball State Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, Illinois
Game Overview
Northern Illinois Huskies (1-6, 0-3 MAC) host the Ball State Cardinals (3-4, 2-1 MAC) in a Mid-American Conference matchup. Northern Illinois struggles offensively and defensively, with averages near the bottom nationally in points scored (12.3) and pass yards allowed (172.3). Ball State shows modest offensive output (18 PPG) and a defense that keeps them competitive, but they have been winless on the road this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Northern Illinois has a poor 1-6 record with a weak offense ranked near the bottom nationally, averaging 12.3 points and 108.6 passing yards per game. Their defense is vulnerable, ranked 22nd in passing yards allowed but 115th in rushing yards allowed. Ball State is 3-4 overall, running a run-heavy offense with poor efficiency, yet with a defense that generates turnovers and limits big plays. They have been competitive against the spread but winless on the road (0-4).
- Specific recent head-to-head data is not available, but Northern Illinois is favored at home with a spread around 5.5-6 points, reflecting the general expectation that Huskies hold a slight advantage despite their poor overall record.
- No current injury reports are available for either team.
- The game will be played at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illinois, with mild weather (~56°F), no rain, and moderate wind. Home-field advantage and the Cardinals' poor road performance are notable external considerations.
- Northern Illinois is motivated to improve from a dismal season start and avoid falling deeper into the MAC cellar at home. Ball State aims to secure a key conference win and improve their road record, despite current struggles away from home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals: +190, Northern Illinois Huskies: -230 | Northern Illinois win | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals: +6 -112, Northern Illinois Huskies: -6 -108 | Northern Illinois -6 cover | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 41.5 -102, Under: 41.5 -118 | Under 41.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies 109% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 41.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Northern Illinois Huskies at 109% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 57.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Northern Illinois is predicted to win at home by approximately a one-score margin, supported by their home advantage and Ball State's road struggles. The predicted outcome favors the Huskies covering the -6 spread with a moderately high confidence given the available analytics and betting trends.
Predicted Score: Northern Illinois Huskies 20, Ball State Cardinals 13