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North Queensland Cowboys vs. Brisbane Broncos Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-30
  • Time: 9:35 AM UTC
  • Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Game Overview

The Brisbane Broncos travel to Queensland Country Bank Stadium to face the North Queensland Cowboys in Round 26 of the NRL season. The Broncos are favored by bookmakers and data models given their stronger form and historical edge.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Broncos show stronger recent form with an estimated 68% win probability from simulation models, reflecting consistency in attack and defense this season while Cowboys have struggled for consistency at home.
  • Broncos have a positive historical head-to-head advantage over the Cowboys, including a recent 26-16 victory earlier this year, giving psychological confidence and tactical familiarity.
  • No significant injury updates reported for either team that would materially affect the outcome.
  • The game being at the Cowboys' home ground adds slight underdog motivation and crowd support, but Broncos are expected to overcome this with superior squad depth.
  • Broncos are motivated to secure finals positioning and maintain momentum while Cowboys seek to upset at home but have less to play for this late in the season.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Brisbane Broncos: -197, North Queensland Cowboys: +167, Draw: +2100 Brisbane Broncos ★★★★☆ 74%
Spread Broncos -4.5 (-120), Cowboys +4.5 (-110) Broncos -4.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 50.5 (-115), Under 50.5 (-115) Over 50.5 ★★★☆☆ 66%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Brisbane Broncos 3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 50.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 50.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Brisbane Broncos win moneyline, cover the -4.5 spread, and the total points will go over 50.5.

Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 28 – 20 North Queensland Cowboys


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Wests Tigers vs. North Queensland Cowboys Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Wests Tigers vs North Queensland Cowboys – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-24
  • Time: 6:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Leichhardt Oval, Sydney

Game Overview

The match between Wests Tigers and North Queensland Cowboys is projected to be an extremely close contest, with minimal separation in team strengths and a very tight predicted score margin. Both teams show inconsistent form and similar defensive and offensive capabilities, suggesting a low-scoring, tight game decided by small momentum swings.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both Wests Tigers and North Queensland Cowboys have struggled for consistent attacking performances but have similar defensive solidity. Recent form shows glimpses of quality but overall inconsistency.
  • The historical data and power rankings show near parity — Tigers ranked 12 and Cowboys 8 — with recent matchups indicating razor-thin margins and balanced outcomes.
  • No significant injuries reported for either side that would decisively impact key positions or overall team strength.
  • The game is at Leichhardt Oval, a spiritual home for Tigers, providing a slight emotional advantage but not enough to decisively tilt the balance. Weather and other conditions are expected to be neutral.
  • Both teams are fighting for respectability late in the season, heightening pressure and motivation to perform, which may contribute to a conservative style and careful game management.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Wests Tigers -139, North Queensland Cowboys +120, Draw +2000 Wests Tigers ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Wests Tigers -2.5 -115, North Queensland Cowboys +2.5 -115 Wests Tigers -2.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over 49.5 -115, Under 49.5 -115 Under 49.5 ★★★☆☆ 66%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Wests Tigers -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 49.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Wests Tigers to win on the moneyline, cover the -2.5 spread, and the total points to go under 49.5.

Predicted Score: Wests Tigers 24 – North Queensland Cowboys 21


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North Queensland Cowboys vs. Newcastle Knights Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: North Queensland Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-17
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Game Overview

The North Queensland Cowboys host the Newcastle Knights in Round 24 of the 2025 NRL season. Both teams are out of finals contention, playing mainly for pride and to avoid wooden spoon status. The Cowboys enter as strong favorites with superior recent H2H records and home advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Cowboys have shown defensive improvements and have won 4 straight matches over the Knights, although their overall season form has been poor with 8 losses in 10 games. The Knights remain the league’s lowest-scoring side and have dropped 5 consecutive matches, struggling offensively.
  • The Cowboys boast a dominant recent H2H record with 4 straight victories against the Knights, including last year’s elimination final. They have a 9-game winning streak at home versus Newcastle.
  • The Cowboys have several players returning from injury (McLean, Lawton, Mikaele, Edwards) but are missing Coen Hess due to suspension. Knights are without Phoenix Crossland (head knock) and make debut with rookie Connor Votano. Dane Gagai returns from injury.
  • Playing at home in Townsville gives the Cowboys a strong advantage, amplified by the Knights’ ongoing offensive struggles and recent heavy defeats.
  • Both teams have limited motivation due to eliminated finals hopes, but the Cowboys’ recent defensive improvements and home dominance provide more incentive to maintain pride and momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Cowboys -225, Knights 185, Draw 2200 North Queensland Cowboys ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Cowboys -7.5 (-115), Knights +7.5 (-115) North Queensland Cowboys -7.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 47.5 (-115), Under 47.5 (-115) Over 47.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline North Queensland Cowboys -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 47.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 47.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

North Queensland Cowboys to win outright with a cover on the -7.5 spread and the game total going over 47.5 points.

Predicted Score: North Queensland Cowboys 28 – 18 Newcastle Knights


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Parramatta Eels vs. North Queensland Cowboys Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-10
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Game Overview

The Parramatta Eels host the North Queensland Cowboys in a crucial Round 23 NRL matchup. Parramatta enter as favorites based on recent form and home advantage, but Cowboys show improving momentum and possess the potential to upset, especially given Parramatta's recent vulnerability against physical sides.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Parramatta have shown a resurgence late season with renewed grit and key playmaker form, whereas North Queensland have defensive struggles conceding 32+ points in many recent games but are regaining key players and building confidence on the road.
  • Historically balanced with Parramatta winning five of the last seven clashes, but no recent decisive dominance. Both teams have similar metrics across attack and defense in recent clashes.
  • North Queensland welcoming back key figures like Jason Taumalolo and Jake Clifford, improving their cohesion. Parramatta appear relatively stable with Mitch Moses influential.
  • CommBank Stadium is a traditionally strong home ground for Parramatta, but recent cracks have appeared making home advantage less secure. The match has high stakes in avoiding the wooden spoon, motivating both teams.
  • Both teams are motivated by ladder pressure and late-season survival stakes, with Parramatta aiming to maintain momentum and Cowboys to capitalize on psychological edge as underdogs.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Parramatta Eels -164, North Queensland Cowboys +142, Draw +2100 Parramatta Eels ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Parramatta Eels -4.5 (-110), North Queensland Cowboys +4.5 (-120) Parramatta Eels -4.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 47.5 (-115), Under 47.5 (-115) Under 47.5 points ★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Parramatta Eels 5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 47.5 35%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 39.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Parramatta Eels to win on the moneyline, cover the -4.5 point spread, and the total score to go under 47.5 points.

Predicted Score: Parramatta Eels 22 – North Queensland Cowboys 14


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Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs. North Queensland Cowboys Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-03
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: Shark Park

Game Overview

The Cronulla Sutherland Sharks host the North Queensland Cowboys in an important Round 22 NRL clash. The Sharks are strong favourites, aiming for a fourth straight win and solidifying their top-eight position, while the Cowboys are desperate to keep their faint finals hopes alive with a favourable run home.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Cronulla Sharks have been showing consistent form recently, with three consecutive wins including a narrow 14-12 victory over the Rabbitohs. The Cowboys managed a high-scoring 38-32 win over the Dragons but continue to suffer from the league's worst defense.
  • The Sharks have a strong historical advantage and recent dominance against the Cowboys, including a comprehensive 36-12 win earlier in 2025. Simulations predict an 80% chance of Sharks winning this match.
  • The Cowboys are missing key five-eighth Tom Duffy due to injury, replaced by Jake Clifford. Suspended forward Karl Lawton is also out; Emarly Bitungane debuts. Sharks have key players Briton Nikora and Siosifa Talakai returning, strengthening their pack.
  • The match is at Shark Park, giving the Sharks home-ground advantage. The Sharks are motivated to maintain top-eight positioning; the Cowboys are motivated to spark a late-season finals charge.
  • Cronulla is motivated to continue their winning streak for finals security; the Cowboys must win to keep playoff hopes alive, adding urgency to their play.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -240, away: 205, draw: 2500 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks ★★★★☆ 80%
Spread home: -110, away: -120 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks -8.5 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under over: -115, under: -115 Over 48.5 ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 48.5 22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks to win straight up, cover the -8.5 spread, and the total points to go over 48.5

Predicted Score: 28-18 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks


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North Queensland Cowboys vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: North Queensland Cowboys vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-25
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville

Game Overview

The North Queensland Cowboys host the St George Illawarra Dragons at home, where the Cowboys traditionally perform well. Both teams are contending for a position in the finals, but despite similar recent defensive records, the Cowboys have a slight power ranking edge and the added advantage of home ground, while the Dragons have shown resilience and upside as underdogs, especially in tight contests. Tropical conditions and humidity could play a role in fatigue and error rates.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both teams have been conceding heavily in recent weeks, but the Dragons have a slight edge in points scored per game. The Cowboys have an impressive home record, but their recent defense is a concern. Dragons are on a resurgent run and have been competitive on the road.
  • Cowboys traditionally dominate at home. Their power ranking is marginally better (12.33 vs 13.67), but statistical analysis reveals minimal separation between the sides[1]. This is a near coin-flip match by most metrics.
  • No significant recent injury reports for either side (as of current data), but always check closer to kickoff for late changes.
  • Tropical heat and humidity in Townsville may affect conditioning, favoring teams with superior fitness and discipline. The Cowboys’ home fortress effect is notable[1].
  • Both teams are highly motivated for a crucial finals push, elevating the stakes and likely resulting in a tightly contested match.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Cowboys -174 / Dragons 148 / Draw 2100 St George Illawarra Dragons ★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread Cowboys -4.5 (-115) / Dragons +4.5 (-115) Dragons +4.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over 46.5 (-145) / Under 46.5 (110) Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline St George Illawarra Dragons 26%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: St George Illawarra Dragons at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

This is one of the closest fixtures of the round, with the Cowboys’ home record counterbalanced by the Dragons’ recent form. Despite bookmakers favoring the Cowboys, the Dragons offer significant value as underdogs. Expect a low-scoring, defensive battle due to humid conditions and high stakes[1].

Predicted Score: St George Illawarra Dragons 20 – North Queensland Cowboys 19


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Dolphins vs. North Queensland Cowboys Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Dolphins vs North Queensland Cowboys – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-17
  • Time: 9:50 AM UTC
  • Location: Suncorp Stadium

Game Overview

The Dolphins host the North Queensland Cowboys in round 20 of the 2025 NRL season at Suncorp Stadium. The Dolphins have established themselves as strong contenders this year with solid form at home, while the Cowboys have been inconsistent and face a tough away challenge.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Dolphins show strong recent form and have a 69% simulated win probability against the Cowboys based on 10,000 simulations. The Cowboys' away performance and defensive lapses reduce their chances.
  • Historically, the Dolphins have had an edge in their recent encounters, especially at home, reinforcing the model's confidence in the home side's advantage.
  • No significant injury updates impacting starting lineups for either team have been reported, suggesting both sides will field near full-strength squads.
  • Playing at Suncorp Stadium confers a strong home-ground advantage to the Dolphins. Weather conditions are expected to be favourable, allowing for an open and high-scoring game.
  • The Dolphins are motivated to consolidate their ladder position to secure finals contention, while the Cowboys, lower on the table, are under pressure to gain points but may be more prone to errors under stress.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Dolphins -179, Cowboys +153, Draw 2200 Dolphins ★★★☆☆ 69%
Spread Dolphins -4.5 -115, Cowboys +4.5 -115 Dolphins -4.5 ★★★☆☆ 64%
Over/under Over 48.5 -115, Under 48.5 -115 Over 48.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Dolphins 8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 48.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Dolphins to win on the moneyline, cover the -4.5 spread, and the total points to go over 48.5

Predicted Score: Dolphins 26 – Cowboys 18


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North Queensland Cowboys vs. Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: North Queensland Cowboys vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-12
  • Time: 9:35 AM UTC
  • Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville

Game Overview

The North Queensland Cowboys are facing a tough challenge as they host the Canterbury Bulldogs, who are favored to win. The Bulldogs have been performing well, but the Cowboys' home advantage could be a significant factor in this match.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Canterbury Bulldogs have superior recent form, but the Cowboys are known for their resilience at home.
  • No recent head-to-head data suggests a significant advantage for either team.
  • The Cowboys have notable absences with Sam McIntyre and John Bateman sidelined, while Murray Taulagi may return.
  • The tropical conditions in Townsville could favor the Cowboys.
  • Both teams are highly motivated, with the Cowboys needing a win to stay in contention and the Bulldogs seeking to solidify their position.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs: -225, North Queensland Cowboys: 185 Canterbury Bulldogs Medium
Spread Canterbury Bulldogs: -7.5 -120, North Queensland Cowboys: 7.5 -110 North Queensland Cowboys +7.5 High
Over/under Over: 48.5 -115, Under: 48.5 -115 Under 48.5 Medium

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs -12%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 48.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Canterbury Bulldogs are favored, but the Cowboys' home advantage and recent return of key players could make this a tighter contest than expected.

Predicted Score: Bulldogs 24, Cowboys 21


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North Queensland Cowboys vs. Melbourne Storm Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-05
  • Time: 9:35 AM UTC
  • Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Game Overview

The upcoming NRL match between North Queensland Cowboys and Melbourne Storm is a clash between a historically dominant Melbourne Storm and a competitively improving Cowboys side. Melbourne Storm have a strong overall head-to-head record against the Cowboys and have been the more consistent team in recent years. The match is set to be played at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, where the Cowboys have shown strong home form.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Melbourne Storm have won 33 out of 46 matches historically against the Cowboys, including 17 of 21 home matches and 7 of 9 matches at AAMI Park. Their recent form includes a decisive 38-14 victory over the Cowboys on June 6, 2025. The Cowboys have had some solid performances at home, winning 3 out of 4 matches at Queensland Country Bank Stadium against the Storm, showing resilience on their turf. Overall, Storm dominate in point scoring (1120 vs 835) across head-to-head games.
  • The Melbourne Storm lead the historic head-to-head with 33 wins out of 46 matches vs the Cowboys' 13 wins since 1998. At Queensland Country Bank Stadium, the Cowboys lead 3-1 in recent matches, indicating stronger home advantage. Melbourne Storm have a longer winning streak (12 games) compared to the Cowboys' best streak of 3 against them.
  • No specific injury information was provided in the available data for either team for this match, suggesting both teams may be close to full strength.
  • Playing at home for the Cowboys generally boosts their performance, especially at Queensland Country Bank Stadium where they have won 3 of the last 4 matches against Melbourne Storm. Travel fatigue and scheduling could be minor factors but with a week gap from the last meeting, both teams should be physically prepared.
  • Melbourne Storm will aim to maintain their dominance over the Cowboys, especially after a recent big win. The Cowboys have motivation to defend their home ground and respond after the recent heavy defeat. Both teams have strong competitive drive given the significance of this fixture in the 2025 NRL season.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Melbourne Storm: -335, North Queensland Cowboys: 265, Draw: 2300 Melbourne Storm win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Melbourne Storm -10.5: -115, North Queensland Cowboys +10.5: -115 Melbourne Storm to cover -10.5 points ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 49.5: -115, Under 49.5: -115 Over 49.5 points ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Melbourne Storm -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 49.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 49.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Melbourne Storm are predicted to win this match owing to their dominant historical record, recent convincing victory, and overall stronger squad performance. However, the home advantage of the Cowboys could keep the scoreline competitive.

Predicted Score: Melbourne Storm 28 – 16 North Queensland Cowboys


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Gold Coast Titans vs. North Queensland Cowboys Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-29
  • Time: 6:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast

Game Overview

The Gold Coast Titans, positioned last on the NRL ladder with only four wins this season, face the North Queensland Cowboys who sit 12th. Both teams come into Round 17 struggling with form and recent heavy losses – the Titans lost 36-20 to the Eels while the Cowboys suffered a 42-8 defeat to the Roosters. The Titans will be looking to recover from inconsistency, while the Cowboys must respond after multiple recent heavy defeats. This Queensland derby is crucial for both sides aiming to arrest their downward trajectories.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Titans have demonstrated fluctuating performances this season, with moments of promise overshadowed by poor results such as the recent loss to the Eels where they also lost Jayden Campbell mid-match due to a head knock. The Cowboys have been struggling defensively, conceding over 30 points in three consecutive matches, including two losses with over 40 points conceded. Both teams face form uncertainties but the Cowboys have a slightly better recent run in terms of standings.
  • Historically, these Queensland rivals have had competitive encounters; however, current season form heavily favors the Cowboys who are higher on the ladder and arguably more stable despite their recent defensive lapses. The Titans have underperformed against top and mid-table teams this season and are seeking to capitalize on home advantage.
  • Key injury impacting the Titans is Jayden Campbell, ruled out mid-game last week with a Category 1 head knock. This forced the inclusion of Tom Weaver into the halves. The Cowboys do not have any notable injury news mentioned but are returning Origin players Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Mo Fotuaika to the Titans bench, which may boost Titans' physicality and morale.
  • The match is at the Titans’ home ground, Cbus Super Stadium, potentially providing a home crowd advantage. Both teams are under pressure due to recent heavy defeats which may affect confidence and motivation. Weather conditions or other external factors have not been specified.
  • Both teams are motivated to reverse poor runs: the Titans to lift themselves off last place and avoid further slide, and the Cowboys to halt defensive collapses and regain competitiveness. The Cowboys coach has publicly demanded improved effort and execution, which suggests strong motivation to respond positively.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gold Coast Titans: 128, North Queensland Cowboys: -143, Draw: 1900 North Queensland Cowboys ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Gold Coast Titans: -4.5 -130, North Queensland Cowboys: +4.5 100 North Queensland Cowboys +4.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 51.5: -115, Under 51.5: -115 Over 51.5 points ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline North Queensland Cowboys -13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 51.5 22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 51.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Despite the Titans' home advantage, the North Queensland Cowboys are predicted to win due to their stronger ladder position, recent form signals, and the Titans’ key injury and inconsistency issues. The Cowboys' defensive struggles may make it a high-scoring game, but their overall quality should prevail.

Predicted Score: Cowboys 28 – Titans 22


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