Match Analysis: North Dakota St Bison vs Southern Illinois Salukis – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-18
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Scheels Center, Fargo, ND
Game Overview
A tightly contested NCAAB matchup where Southern Illinois Salukis are slight favorites on the road versus the North Dakota State Bison. Both teams show competitive form, with the Salukis holding a slight edge in recent simulations and overall probability.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Dakota State is 3-2 recently with inconsistent spread performance (1-4 ATS), while Southern Illinois shows steadier form and a 58% win probability in simulations. NDSU averages more rebounds and assists but struggles offensively (44% FG vs. 52% for SIU).
- Recent simulations and model predictions favor Southern Illinois with a 58% win probability over North Dakota State's 42%, projecting a close score around 78-76. Historical H2H data is limited but slightly favors SIU.
- No major injuries reported for either team impacting key players or rotation depth, suggesting both squads will be near full strength.
- The game is at North Dakota Stateβs home court, which could confer a small home advantage; however, Southern Illinois' motivation and consistency on the road mitigate this factor.
- Southern Illinois appears motivated to assert dominance early in the season with a slightly better recent performance and willingness to cover the spread, while North Dakota State aims to leverage home advantage to avoid an early setback.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: +105, away: -126 | Away (Southern Illinois) | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | home: -114, away: -106 | Away (-1.5 Southern Illinois) | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Under 152.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southern Illinois Salukis 19% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Southern Illinois Salukis at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Southern Illinois Salukis to win moneyline and cover the -1.5 spread, with a total score under 152.5 points.
Predicted Score: Southern Illinois 78 – North Dakota State 75