Match Analysis: Ketlen Vieira vs Norma Dumont – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
Ketlen Vieira faces Norma Dumont in a pivotal women's bantamweight matchup at UFC Vegas 110. Both fighters are ranked contenders with strong records and contrasting styles. Vieira is known for her grappling and ground control, while Dumont excels in striking volume and defense. The fight is expected to be close, with betting markets reflecting a slight edge to Dumont.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vieira averages 2.84 significant strikes per minute with 41% accuracy and allows 3.72 per minute. Dumont lands 3.86 per minute at 50% accuracy and allows only 2.16 per minute. Dumont has superior striking stats and defense, but Vieira has a clear edge in takedowns and ground control.
- No prior H2H matchup exists between Vieira and Dumont.
- No reported injuries for either fighter.
- The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no crowd advantage. Both fighters are accustomed to the environment.
- Both fighters are in the upper tier of the division and are motivated to secure a win for a potential title shot. Dumont is coming off a strong run, while Vieira seeks to rebound from recent setbacks.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 142, away: -170 | Norma Dumont | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | home: 3.5 -205, away: -3.5 150 | Norma Dumont -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | over: 2.5 -475, under: 2.5 325 | Over 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Norma Dumont -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Norma Dumont at -11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Norma Dumont wins by decision or late finish due to superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics. Vieira's grappling will be a factor, but Dumont's ability to avoid damage and outwork her on the feet will be decisive.
Predicted Score: Norma Dumont wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)