Match Analysis: Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-02
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
The bantamweight bout features Karol Rosa, a 30-year-old Brazilian fighter with an 18-7-0 record, facing Nora Cornolle, a 35-year-old French fighter with a 9-2-0 record. Both fighters employ an orthodox stance and weigh 135 lbs. Rosa has a higher strike volume and connects on a slightly higher percentage of significant strikes but absorbs more significant strikes per minute. Cornolle exhibits superior defense, absorbing fewer strikes and defending a larger percentage. Their reach is equal at 67 inches.
Key Factors to Consider
- Karol Rosa averages 6.22 significant strikes landed per minute with a 55% connect rate, but also absorbs 4.84 strikes per minute. Nora Cornolle lands fewer strikes at 3.07 per minute with a 54% connect rate, but defends better, absorbing only 1.91 strikes per minute and defending 62% of opponents' strikes. Rosa's volume striking contrasts with Cornolle's better defensive metrics.
- There are no recorded previous head-to-head matches between Karol Rosa and Nora Cornolle, making this encounter their first professional meeting.
- No current injury reports or issues have been disclosed for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas on August 2, 2025, part of UFC Vegas 108 main card. No significant external disruptions or conditions impacting the fight have been reported.
- Karol Rosa seeks to enhance her solid record with a victory over a highly defensive opponent. Nora Cornolle will aim to leverage her defensive skills and precise striking to maintain her strong winning record despite facing a more aggressive opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Karol Rosa: -185, Nora Cornolle: 154 | Karol Rosa | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Karol Rosa: -3.5 140, Nora Cornolle: 3.5 -195 | Karol Rosa to cover -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -560, Under: 2.5 370 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Karol Rosa 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 206% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 206% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 55.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Karol Rosa is favored to win due to her higher striking volume and pressure, though Nora Cornolle's superior defense could pose a challenge and potentially extend the fight. A decision or late-round victory for Rosa is the most probable outcome.
Predicted Score: Karol Rosa wins by decision or late round stoppage after 3 rounds