Match Analysis: Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-02
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Game Overview

Karol Rosa, a 30-year-old with a record of 18-7-0, faces Nora Cornolle, 35 years old with a 9-2-0 record, in the UFC Apex. Both fighters compete in the bantamweight division with nearly identical reach and stance, making this a close stylistic match.

Key Factors to Consider

• Karol Rosa has a higher output of significant strikes landed per minute (6.22) compared to Cornolle (3.07), but absorbs more strikes per minute (4.84 vs. 1.91). Rosa connects on 55% strike accuracy while Cornolle is nearly as accurate at 54%. Cornolle has a stronger defensive percentage, blocking 62% of opponent strikes compared to Rosa's 49%.
• No direct head-to-head matchups available, but stylistic metrics indicate Rosa is the aggressor with higher volume striking, while Cornolle relies more on defensive counters.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue without home advantage for either fighter. Both fighters are experienced and will likely have full training camps.
• Karol Rosa aims to maintain momentum and extend a significant winning streak, adding to a larger fight total. Nora Cornolle, the underdog, is motivated to prove herself against a top-ranked opponent and improve her professional record.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Karol Rosa: -185, Nora Cornolle: +154	Karol Rosa	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Karol Rosa -3.5: 1.40, Nora Cornolle +3.5: 1.95	Nora Cornolle +3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -560, Under 2.5 rounds: +370	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Karol Rosa 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 206%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 206% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 55.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Karol Rosa to win by decision

Predicted Score: Karol Rosa wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Nora Cornolle vs Hailey Cowan – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-10
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Game Overview

Nora Cornolle and Hailey Cowan are set to face off in a women's bantamweight bout at UFC 315. Cornolle, with a record of 8-2 and 2-1 in the UFC, is looking to rebound from a loss to Jacqueline Cavalcanti. Cowan, 7-3 with a 0-1 UFC record, returns after a nearly two-year layoff due to injuries.

Key Factors to Consider

• Cornolle has shown strength in both striking and grappling, though her wins can be rough. Cowan, though physically gifted, has struggled with translating her athleticism into MMA success.
• There is no head-to-head data available for this matchup.
• Cowan has been dealing with a range of injuries, including a broken shin, which has kept her sidelined for almost two years.
• The fight takes place in Montreal, potentially affecting crowd support for both fighters, though Cornolle may receive more due to her European background and recent UFC experience.
• Both fighters are highly motivated; Cornolle seeks to regain momentum, while Cowan aims to prove herself after a long layoff.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cornolle: -180, Cowan: 155	Cornolle	★★★★☆ 70%
Over_under	Over: 2.5 -200, Under: 2.5 +160	Over	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Nora Cornolle 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Nora Cornolle at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Cornolle's recent UFC experience and Cowan's layoff, Cornolle is likely to win, potentially via stoppage.

Predicted Score: Not applicable for MMA

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey Cowan Prediction	Nora Cornolle Win	-180	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull Prediction	Yair Rodriguez Win	-194	★★★☆☆ 65% (65%)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva Prediction	Jean Silva Win	-230	★★★☆☆ 65% (65%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +238

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $67.65