Match Analysis: Badou Jack vs Noel Mikaelian – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-03
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: The Venue, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Game Overview

Badou Jack (WBC cruiserweight champion) defends his title against Noel Mikaelian (WBC champion in recess) in a 12-round bout. Mikaelian replaces Ryan Rozicki due to injury, seeking to reclaim the title he briefly held in 2023. Both fighters are seasoned with extensive records: Jack (28-3-3, 17 KOs), Mikaelian (27-2, 12 KOs).

Key Factors to Consider

• Jack has superior KO power (17 KOs vs 12 KOs) and recent promotional momentum (WBC champion since December 2024). Mikaelian's last fight was a November 2023 KO win over Ilunga Makabu, but he's faced contractual issues and inactivity since.
• No prior meetings. Mikaelian holds the stylistic advantage as a natural cruiserweight, while Jack has moved up multiple weight classes.
• Jack hasn't fought since 2023 but shows no reported injuries. Mikaelian withdrew from three 2024 fights but claims full fitness now.
• Fight occurs on Canelo-Scull undercard in Saudi Arabia's boxing hotspot. No significant travel/time zone advantages.
• Jack seeks unification/undisputed status. Mikaelian aims to prove he's the legitimate WBC champion after being stripped.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jack +130 / Mikaelian -160	Mikaelian moneyline	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 10.5 (-200) / Under 10.5 (+160)	Over 10.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Noel Mikaelian 27%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 10.5 13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Noel Mikaelian at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mikaelian by decision (55%) or late-round KO (15%). Jack's best path is early aggression (30%). Expect technical battle favoring Mikaelian's sharper recent form.

Predicted Score: Mikaelian via UD (117-111) or late TKO (Round 11-12)