Match Analysis: Nikolay Veretennikov vs Punahele Soriano – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-04
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The UFC 320 prelim bout between Nikolay Veretennikov and Punahele Soriano features two welterweights with differing styles and career trajectories. Soriano is a proven UFC veteran (11-4, 5-4 UFC) with a heavy-handed, aggressive approach, while Veretennikov (13-6, 1-2 UFC) is looking to establish himself at the highest level. Bookmaker odds heavily favor Soriano, reflecting his higher Octagon experience and finishing power.

Key Factors to Consider

• Soriano has a more extensive UFC track record with notable power and durability. Veretennikov is less proven in the UFC, with only four Octagon appearances and a mixed record in the big show. Soriano’s recent form has been stronger, facing higher-level competition and finishing fights with knockouts and submissions[2].
• No prior fights between the two. However, Soriano’s resume includes bouts against tougher opposition, giving him an edge in big-game experience.
• No significant public information suggesting injuries for either fighter[1][2].
• The fight is at altitude in Las Vegas, and both athletes are well-prepared. No external factors stand out as likely to swing this matchup.
• Soriano has regained momentum with a recent knockout and is looking to climb the welterweight ranks. Veretennikov has more to prove but has shown the ability to upset in the underdog role.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Soriano -332, Veretennikov +272	Soriano	★★★★☆ 81%
Over/under	Over 1.5 Rounds -180, Under 1.5 Rounds +157	Under 1.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Punahele Soriano -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 46%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Punahele Soriano is the clear favorite, but the betting value is questionable due to the heavy odds. The Over is strongly favored, reflecting both fighters’ finishing instincts and Soriano’s recent tendency to end fights[2].

Predicted Score: Soriano by KO/TKO, Round 1

Match Analysis: Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-19
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Prelims, UFC 318

Game Overview

Francisco Prado (Argentina) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Kazakhstan) is a crucial welterweight matchup for both fighters, with Prado looking to rebound and Veretennikov aiming to leverage his striking pedigree against a younger opponent with diverse finishes.

Key Factors to Consider

• Prado is a well-rounded prospect (6 KO, 6 SUB) from a top MMA gym, showing aggression and grappling acumen. Veretennikov is a powerful striker (9 KO in 18 fights, 56% striking accuracy) with strong takedown defense, but was exposed on the ground in his most recent outing[1][2].
• No prior meetings.
• No reported injuries.
• Prado’s camp is known for strategic gameplans; Veretennikov’s comfort zone is the standup, but his ground vulnerability is a clear exploitable weakness[2].
• High for both—loser faces potential UFC exit. Prado’s team likely builds fight around his grappling edge, while Veretennikov must keep it standing to maximize his power[2].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Prado -142 / Veretennikov 120	Francisco Prado	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Prado -3.5 120 / Veretennikov 3.5 -165	Francisco Prado -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -166 / Under 2.5 130	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Francisco Prado 7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 38%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Francisco Prado wins by submission, exploiting Veretennikov’s defensive grappling gap after early striking exchanges.

Predicted Score: Francisco Prado by Submission, Round 2

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – July 19, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov Prediction	Under 2.5	130	38%
Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway Prediction	Under 4.5	124	23%
Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull Prediction	Over 2.5	-270	16%

Combined Odds: +606 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $141.2

Match Analysis: Austin Vanderford vs Nikolay Veretennikov – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-22
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not Specified

Game Overview

Austin Vanderford, a skilled Bellator Middleweight fighter, faces Nikolay Veretennikov in a highly anticipated MMA match. Vanderford's strong background in wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu could give him an edge, but Veretennikov's recent performances might pose a challenge.

Key Factors to Consider

• Austin Vanderford has a strong MMA record with 11 wins and 2 losses, showcasing his versatility in knockouts and submissions. His experience in Bellator and grappling competitions could be crucial.
• There is no recorded head-to-head match between Austin Vanderford and Nikolay Veretennikov, making this a first encounter.
• No recent injury reports are available for either fighter.
• The match's venue and crowd could influence the fighters' performance, but specific details are not provided.
• Both fighters are likely highly motivated, given the stakes of the match and the opportunity to improve their standings.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Austin Vanderford: 118, Nikolay Veretennikov: -138	Austin Vanderford	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	Not Provided	Austin Vanderford	★★★☆☆ 50%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -125, Under 2.5: -105	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Austin Vanderford is expected to win due to his experience and skillset.

Predicted Score: Austin Vanderford wins by decision