Match Analysis: Chase Hooper vs Nikola Kacperska – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-21
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: TBA

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA bout features Chase Hooper, a rising UFC lightweight prospect, against Nikola Kacperska, a Polish strawweight fighter with a solid regional record. The matchup is unusual due to the significant weight and experience disparity, with Hooper competing at a higher level and with more high-profile exposure. Kacperska is known for her technical striking and grappling, but faces a steep challenge against Hooper’s well-rounded skill set and UFC pedigree.

Key Factors to Consider

• Chase Hooper has competed in the UFC and Dana White's Contender Series, facing top-tier competition and demonstrating strong grappling and submission skills. Nikola Kacperska has a 3-2 record in regional promotions, with wins over less experienced opponents. Hooper’s resume is far more impressive, with higher-level training and competition.
• There is no prior head-to-head history between Chase Hooper and Nikola Kacperska. This is their first professional encounter.
• No recent injuries have been reported for either fighter leading up to this bout.
• The bout is likely to be contested at a catchweight or with Hooper moving down, which could impact his strength and stamina. Kacperska’s experience is primarily in strawweight, while Hooper is a natural lightweight.
• Hooper is motivated to rebound from recent setbacks and reestablish himself in the UFC. Kacperska is seeking a breakthrough win against a higher-profile opponent to boost her international profile.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Chase Hooper: -200, Nikola Kacperska: 150	Chase Hooper	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Chase Hooper -1.5	Chase Hooper covers	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over/Under 2.5 rounds	Under	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chase Hooper 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Chase Hooper at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Chase Hooper is favored to win this matchup due to his superior experience, skill set, and competition level. Nikola Kacperska will likely push the pace and test Hooper’s adaptability, but Hooper’s grappling and fight IQ should prevail. The most likely outcome is a decision or submission win for Hooper.

Predicted Score: Chase Hooper wins by decision or submission in round 3

Match Analysis: Lizzy Gevers vs Nikola Kacperska – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-15
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Sanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, United States

Game Overview

The bantamweight MMA fight between Lizzy Gevers and Nikola Kacperska is scheduled for August 15, 2025, at the Sanford Pentagon during the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) 214 event. Gevers comes with a 4-2 record, showing a strong submission game (3 submission wins), while Kacperska holds a 2-2 record with a more balanced outcome between decisions and submissions. Both fighters have never won or lost by KO/TKO, indicating a technical and grappling-oriented fight.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lizzy Gevers has a better professional record (4-2) compared to Nikola Kacperska’s 2-2. Gevers favors submissions (3 wins by submission) suggesting strong grappling skills. Kacperska is more evenly balanced between decisions and submissions but with fewer total wins.
• There is no recorded previous fight between Lizzy Gevers and Nikola Kacperska, so no direct head-to-head data is available.
• No injuries or physical handicaps for either fighter have been reported in the lead-up to this bout.
• The fight takes place at the Sanford Pentagon, a familiar venue hosting multiple LFA events, including ones where both fighters have competed previously, indicating no significant travel or acclimatization issues. The event is well-promoted and broadcast on UFC Fight Pass, adding standard professional fight conditions.
• Lizzy Gevers is making a comeback, motivated to improve her 4-2 record and demonstrate her grappling prowess. Nikola Kacperska, with a balanced but less dominant record, is motivated to even her record and gain momentum in the bantamweight division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Lizzy_Gevers: -450, Nikola_Kacperska: 275	Lizzy Gevers	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Lizzy_Gevers: -1.5, Nikola_Kacperska: +1.5	Lizzy Gevers to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over: -120, under: +100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Lizzy Gevers -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Lizzy Gevers at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Lizzy Gevers is favored to win due to her better recent form, superior submission record, and negative moneyline odds (-450). The likely outcome is a submission or decision victory for Gevers, given the grappling-heavy fight style of both.

Predicted Score: Lizzy Gevers wins by submission in round 2