Match Analysis: Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: July 19, 2025
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Smoothie King Center in New Orleans
Game Overview
Carli Judice, a 26-year-old southpaw with a 4-2-0 record, faces Nicolle Caliari, a 28-year-old orthodox fighter with an 8-3-0 record, in a flyweight bout at UFC 318.
Key Factors to Consider
- Judice has a higher strike rate, connecting on 11.18 significant strikes per minute at a 53% success rate, while Caliari connects on 3.85 at 41%. Judice also absorbs more strikes, taking 10.01 per minute, compared to Caliari's 5.57.
- No past head-to-head matchups between the fighters.
- No reported injuries for either fighter.
- The fight's setting and crowd support may favor Judice slightly given her home-continent advantage.
- Both fighters are highly motivated, but Judice's recent performance statistics suggest a stronger competitive edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -340 | Carli Judice | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | -3.5 -135 | Carli Judice | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Over/under | 2.5 | Over | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carli Judice -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Carli Judice at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Carli Judice to win by decision
Predicted Score: Decision win for Judice in Round 3