Match Analysis: Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-19
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans
Game Overview
The UFC 318 Flyweight early prelims fight features Carli Judice, a 26-year-old southpaw with a 4-2 record, facing Nicolle Caliari, a 28-year-old orthodox fighter with an 8-3 record. Judice is taller (5'7" vs. 5'3") and has a longer reach (68" vs. 62"). Judice exhibits a higher striking volume and accuracy, connecting on 11.18 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy, compared to Caliari's 3.85 strikes per minute at 41% accuracy. Defensively, Caliari takes fewer significant strikes per minute (5.57 vs. 10.01) and has a slightly better strike defense percentage (55% vs. 53%). The bout promises contrasting styles, with Judice favoring volume striking and Caliari relying on more defensive tactics.
Key Factors to Consider
- Judice shows a strong striking output and efficiency, while Caliari has a more defensive style with fewer absorbed strikes but less offensive volume.
- There is no record of previous matchups between Judice and Caliari, making this their first encounter.
- No reported injuries influencing the fight for either competitor as of current data.
- The fight takes place at UFC 318 in the Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, a neutral venue with no visible external distractions or disadvantages noted for either fighter.
- Judice is entering on a winning streak with momentum at age 26, possibly enhancing confidence and motivation. Caliari, being the more experienced fighter with a better win record, will aim to leverage experience and tactical defense to secure the win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carli Judice: -340, Nicolle Caliari: 280 | Carli Judice to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | over: -245, under: 195 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carli Judice 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 80% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 80% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Carli Judice is favored to win by decision given her higher strike volume and accuracy, although the defensive skills of Nicolle Caliari might limit damage and extend the fight duration.
Predicted Score: Judice wins by unanimous decision (3-0 rounds)