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Newcastle Knights vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-08
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: McDonald Jones Stadium

Game Overview

The Newcastle Knights host the Penrith Panthers in a Round 23 NRL match. Panthers enter as strong favourites based on recent form, head-to-head dominance, and superior squad depth.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers display strong recent form with consistent wins, superior fitness, and tactical execution. Newcastle Knights have been competitive but generally fall short against top-tier teams like the Panthers.
  • Historical data and simulations give Panthers around 80% chance to beat the Knights, usually by a moderate margin. Panthers have held dominance in recent matchups, especially at Newcastle's home ground.
  • No critical injury updates indicate significant absences impacting either side, suggesting both squads likely near full strength.
  • Match played at McDonald Jones Stadium favors Knights slightly due to home advantage, but Panthers’ mental and tactical edge likely neutralizes this factor.
  • Panthers motivated to maintain top-tier momentum heading into finals, while Knights aim to challenge but face a tough test against a dominant side.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Newcastle Knights: 305, Penrith Panthers: -400, Draw: 2400 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 80%
Spread Newcastle Knights +12.5: -120, Penrith Panthers -12.5: -110 Newcastle Knights +12.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 44.5: -115, Under 44.5: -115 Under 44.5 ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 44.5 31%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 44.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win by a margin within 1-12 points, in a controlled, tactical match likely scoring below or near total set line.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 24 – Newcastle Knights 18


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Canberra Raiders vs. Newcastle Knights Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-27
  • Time: 4:00 AM UTC
  • Location: GIO Stadium Canberra

Game Overview

The Canberra Raiders host the Newcastle Knights in NRL Round 21 at GIO Stadium. The Raiders, strong favourites, aim to solidify their position towards the minor premiership with recent strong form. The Knights, underdogs, face a challenging away fixture and must cover a significant spread for value.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Raiders exhibit significantly stronger recent form and overall season performance compared to the Knights, with machine learning models giving them an 81% win probability. The Knights have struggled in away fixtures and faced defensive challenges.
  • Historical matchups show Raiders dominance over Knights, especially at home ground GIO Stadium. Recent fixtures trend heavily towards Canberra winning comfortably.
  • No major injuries reported impacting key Raiders players; Knights have minor fitness concerns but no confirmed missing starters, slightly reducing their competitiveness.
  • Playing at home with strong crowd support benefits Canberra. Weather conditions expected favorable and should not impact game flow or scoring significantly.
  • Raiders motivated to maintain winning streak and improve ladder position with potential finals implications. Knights are motivated but less so given form and away challenge.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canberra Raiders -480, Newcastle Knights +375, Draw +2800 Canberra Raiders ★★★★☆ 81%
Spread Canberra Raiders -14.5 -110, Newcastle Knights +14.5 -120 Canberra Raiders -14.5 ★★★★☆ 74%
Over/under Over 44.5 -115, Under 44.5 -115 Over 44.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canberra Raiders -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 27%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 44.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Canberra Raiders to win outright, cover the -14.5 spread, and the total points to go over 44.5

Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 30 – Newcastle Knights 14


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Newcastle Knights vs. New Zealand Warriors Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-20
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: McDonald Jones Stadium

Game Overview

The upcoming match between Newcastle Knights and New Zealand Warriors is expected to be closely contested despite the Warriors being favored. Recent form and head-to-head statistics play crucial roles in assessing the teams' strengths and weaknesses.

Key Factors to Consider

  • New Zealand Warriors have shown stronger recent form, winning significant matches like against the Wests Tigers and South Sydney Rabbitohs. Newcastle Knights have been inconsistent, struggling against top-tier teams.
  • Historically, head-to-head matchups have favored the Warriors, though recent encounters have been competitive.
  • As of the latest updates, there are no significant injuries reported for either team that would drastically impact the outcome.
  • Weather conditions and home-field advantage could slightly favor the Knights, but not significantly enough to alter the odds dramatically.
  • Both teams are motivated to secure valuable points in the NRL standings, but the Warriors might have an edge in maintaining their stronger season trajectory.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Newcastle Knights: 1.90, New Zealand Warriors: 1.57 (implied), Draw: 22.00 New Zealand Warriors ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread New Zealand Warriors: -7.5 at -115 Newcastle Knights +7.5 ★★★★☆ 74%
Over/under Over: 43.5 at -115, Under: 43.5 at -115 Under 43.5 ★★★☆☆ 59%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline New Zealand Warriors -7%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 43.5 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 43.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

New Zealand Warriors to win with a close margin.

Predicted Score: New Zealand Warriors 22-20 Newcastle Knights


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Newcastle Knights vs. Melbourne Storm Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-12
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Game Overview

The Melbourne Storm travel to face the Newcastle Knights in a significant NRL match. The Storm are currently in second place, while the Knights are struggling in 13th. The Storm are favored to win, given their strong recent form and the return of key players from Origin duties.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Storm have been consistent, winning 12 of their last 14 against the Knights. However, the Knights have won their last two home games against the Storm. The Knights lack consistency, having lost six of their last seven home games.
  • The Storm have a dominant head-to-head record against the Knights, winning 12 of the past 14 matches. However, the Knights' recent home victories against the Storm are noteworthy.
  • Kalyn Ponga remains sidelined for the Knights, while the Storm welcome back their Origin players. The Knights have made some adjustments, including Fletcher Hunt starting at fullback.
  • The Storm's motivation to secure the minor premiership could influence their performance.
  • The Storm's drive for the minor premiership and the Knights' desire to stay in contention for the finals could impact team motivation.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline -375 for Storm, 300 for Knights, 2400 for Draw Storm to win High
Spread -10.5 for Storm, +10.5 for Knights Storm to cover Medium-High
Over/under 46.5 Over Medium

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Melbourne Storm -81%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 46.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Melbourne Storm to win, given their recent form and the return of key players. The Knights' inconsistent performance and injury issues make a Storm victory likely.

Predicted Score: Storm 26 – Knights 16


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Newcastle Knights vs. Canberra Raiders Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-27
  • Time: 10:00 AM UTC
  • Location: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Game Overview

The Newcastle Knights will host the Canberra Raiders in a pivotal Round 17 NRL match at McDonald Jones Stadium. Both teams are competing in the midst of an intense 2025 NRL season, with the Knights looking to capitalize on home advantage and community support during their Beanie for Brain Cancer Round. The Raiders come into the game with the motivation of milestone player Corey Horsburgh, who will play his 100th match for the club.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Newcastle Knights have demonstrated solid performances at home this season, leveraging strong defensive structures and effective attacking plays. The Canberra Raiders have been competitive but less consistent away from home. Recent rest for key players like Tyson Young suggests strategic player management by the Knights, while the Raiders are motivated by Horsburgh's milestone.
  • Historically, encounters between Newcastle and Canberra have been closely contested. Recent form slightly favors the Knights at home, but the Raiders have shown resilience and capacity to pull off upsets. The head-to-head rivalry adds intensity to this clash.
  • The Knights have Saifiti confirmed as fit and ready to play, while Tyson Young has been rested to keep him fresh. No significant injuries have been reported for the Raiders ahead of the match, indicating both teams will likely field close to full-strength squads.
  • The game is part of the Beanie for Brain Cancer Round at McDonald Jones Stadium, contributing added emotional motivation for the Knights and strong local support. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be favorable for a high-tempo game.
  • Corey Horsburgh's 100th game for the Raiders provides a strong personal and team incentive. For the Knights, the desire to maintain home dominance and engage the passionate local fanbase during a special charity round boosts their motivation to win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canberra Raiders: -250, Newcastle Knights: 205, Draw: 2300 Newcastle Knights to win ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Canberra Raiders -7.5: -120, Newcastle Knights +7.5: -110 Newcastle Knights +7.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 44.5: -115, Under 44.5: -115 Over 44.5 points ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canberra Raiders 83%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Canberra Raiders at 83% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the home advantage, recent team management, and emotional stakes, the Newcastle Knights are favored to win this encounter. The Raiders remain a threat but are underdogs on the road.

Predicted Score: Newcastle Knights 24 – 20 Canberra Raiders


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Dolphins vs. Newcastle Knights Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Dolphins vs Newcastle Knights – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-21
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: HBF Park, Perth

Game Overview

The Round 16 NRL match between the Dolphins and Newcastle Knights is set to take place at HBF Park in Perth on June 21, 2025. Both teams are contending in the NRL Premiership season, with the Dolphins hosting the Knights in what promises to be a competitive and strategic encounter. This match is critical in shaping the mid-season table and momentum for both sides.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Dolphins have shown solid form at home this season, leveraging strong defensive structures and effective attacking plays. Newcastle Knights have been inconsistent but possess a dangerous edge in attack when their key playmakers perform well. Recent form favors the Dolphins slightly, especially with their home advantage in Perth.
  • Historically, head-to-head encounters have been relatively balanced, but the Dolphins have had an edge in recent clashes, winning most of the encounters in the current season. Newcastle tends to struggle defensively against the Dolphins' fast-paced offense.
  • There are no major injury concerns publicly reported for either team ahead of this match, implying both squads will likely field their best available lineups.
  • Playing in Perth at HBF Park presents travel and adjustment challenges for Newcastle, potentially giving the Dolphins an advantage. Weather conditions are expected to be clear, minimizing environmental impact on the game.
  • The Dolphins, aiming to consolidate their position in the top half of the ladder, are highly motivated to capitalize on home advantage. Newcastle Knights are motivated to break their inconsistent form and gain valuable points away from home.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Dolphins: -375, Newcastle Knights: 290, Draw: 2500 Dolphins ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Dolphins: -11.5 -120, Newcastle Knights: +11.5 -110 Dolphins to cover the -11.5 spread ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 44.5: -145, Under 44.5: 110 Under 44.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Dolphins -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 44.5 26%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 44.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Dolphins are favored to win this match due to their stronger recent form, home advantage, and the Knights' travel fatigue. A competitive game is likely but the Dolphins have the edge in both attack and defense on paper.

Predicted Score: Dolphins 24 – 14 Newcastle Knights


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Newcastle Knights vs. Sydney Roosters Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-14
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: McDonald Jones Stadium

Game Overview

The match between Newcastle Knights and Sydney Roosters promises to be intense, with both teams having a strong history in the NRL. Newcastle Knights have shown resilience at home, while Sydney Roosters are known for their consistent performance across seasons.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Newcastle Knights have a mixed form recently, but their home games have been more successful. Sydney Roosters, on the other hand, have been consistent performers, especially away from home.
  • Sydney Roosters have historically dominated Newcastle Knights, winning 39 out of 63 matches. However, Newcastle Knights have managed 10 wins at home.
  • No significant injury updates are available for this match. However, any late withdrawals could impact team dynamics.
  • Weather conditions and crowd support might influence the game's intensity and strategy.
  • Both teams are eager for a win to improve their standings in the league.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Newcastle Knights: 250, Sydney Roosters: -305, Draw: 2200 Sydney Roosters ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Newcastle Knights: 9.5 -115, Sydney Roosters: -9.5 -115 Sydney Roosters ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over: 43.5 -115, Under: 43.5 -115 Over ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Sydney Roosters 4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 43.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Sydney Roosters at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sydney Roosters are likely to win given their historical dominance and recent form.

Predicted Score: Sydney Roosters 28, Newcastle Knights 18


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Newcastle Knights vs. Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Newcastle Knights vs Manly Warringah Sea Eagles – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-05
  • Time: 9:50 AM UTC
  • Location: McDonald Jones Stadium

Game Overview

The Newcastle Knights will host the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles in Round 14 of the 2025 NRL season at McDonald Jones Stadium. The Sea Eagles enter as favorites, aiming to secure back-to-back wins for the first time since March. The Knights have struggled offensively this season, averaging just 13.3 points per game, making scoring a key challenge against the solid Manly defense.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Knights have been underperforming offensively, recently suffering three defeats in four matches. They average only 13.3 points per game, the lowest in the competition this season. Conversely, Manly's defense has been relatively strong, conceding an average of 20.5 points per game but showing defensive resilience with just six points conceded in their last match.
  • Historically, these teams have been competitive but Manly holds a recent advantage in head-to-head encounters and is currently favored to win. Advanced simulations give Manly a 67% probability of victory at Newcastle's home ground.
  • No specific injury updates were listed in the available data, suggesting squads are likely near full strength or no notable absences have been reported impacting this clash.
  • The match is played at home for the Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium, where they have some home-ground advantage and support. It is also a community round, potentially boosting player motivation. Weather and pitch conditions were not indicated but presumed normal.
  • Manly is motivated to maintain their spot in the top eight and seeks momentum with consecutive wins. Newcastle aims to break their poor form and secure a vital home victory to regain confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Manly Warringah Sea Eagles: -230, Newcastle Knights: 188, Draw: 2400 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles ★★★☆☆ 67%
Spread Newcastle Knights +5.5: 1.91, Manly Sea Eagles -5.5: 1.91 Manly Sea Eagles -5.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 44.5: -115, Under 44.5: -115 Over 44.5 points ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 44.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles are predicted to win by approximately 10 points, capitalizing on their stronger defense and Newcastle's offensive struggles.

Predicted Score: Manly Sea Eagles 24 – Newcastle Knights 14


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Newcastle Knights Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-30
  • Time: 10:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

Game Overview

This NRL match pits the St George Illawarra Dragons against the Newcastle Knights. The Dragons are favored, with odds indicating a higher probability of winning. The game is expected to be competitive, given the spread and over/under odds.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both teams have shown mixed performances in the current season. The Dragons have been consistent at home, while the Knights have struggled away from their home ground.
  • Historically, the head-to-head matches have been closely contested, with both teams having their share of wins.
  • Injuries could play a crucial role in this match, as missing key players can significantly impact team performance.
  • External factors such as weather conditions and crowd support might influence the game, though specific details are not available.
  • Motivation levels are high for both teams, as they seek to improve their standings in the league.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline -186 for St George Illawarra Dragons, 159 for Newcastle Knights, 2200 for a draw St George Illawarra Dragons ★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread -5.5 for St George Illawarra Dragons, 5.5 for Newcastle Knights St George Illawarra Dragons to cover ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under 44.5 Under 44.5 ★★★☆☆ 50%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline St George Illawarra Dragons -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: St George Illawarra Dragons at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Based on the current odds and team performance, the St George Illawarra Dragons are likely to win this match.

Predicted Score: St George Illawarra Dragons 24 – Newcastle Knights 18


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Penrith Panthers vs. Newcastle Knights Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-24
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Carrington Park, Bathurst

Game Overview

The Penrith Panthers, four-time consecutive NRL premiers, host the Newcastle Knights at Carrington Park in Bathurst. This match is part of the NRL Telstra Premiership and promises to be an engaging contest between two teams with differing recent success.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers have been dominant in recent seasons, while Newcastle Knights have had mixed results.
  • Historically, Penrith Panthers have had a stronger record against Newcastle Knights.
  • Injury reports are crucial; Penrith typically maintains a strong squad, while Newcastle Knights' performance can be affected by player availability.
  • The game is being played in Bathurst, which is a home-away-from-home venue for Penrith Panthers, potentially providing an advantage.
  • Penrith Panthers' motivation to continue their winning streak could influence the game's outcome.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Penrith Panthers: -205, Newcastle Knights: 170, Draw: 2100 Penrith Panthers win ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Penrith Panthers: -5.5 -115, Newcastle Knights: 5.5 -115 Penrith Panthers cover the spread ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over: 43.5 -115, Under: 43.5 -115 Over 43.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 43.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Penrith Panthers at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers are favored to win due to their recent dominance and home advantage.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 26, Newcastle Knights 17


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