Match Analysis: Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 5:00 AM UTC
- Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Game Overview
The upcoming NRL match between Brisbane Broncos and New Zealand Warriors is set at Suncorp Stadium with the Broncos looking to extend their winning streak at home, having scored 78 points in back-to-back wins. The Warriors, ranked 4th, are slightly ahead in the table compared to the Broncos in 5th. Both teams have recent success at this venue, with the Warriors having claimed three of their last four games at Suncorp but not defeating the Broncos there since 2018. Key players such as Reece Walsh and Payne Haas are influential for the Broncos, while the Warriors welcome back Kurt Capewell following injury. The match is anticipated to be highly competitive, featuring solid performances and tactical adjustments from both sides.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Broncos have strong momentum, scoring 78 points over their last two home games and successfully overcoming a 16-point deficit against the Sharks recently. Reece Walsh’s return from injury has significantly boosted their attack, and Payne Haas continues to lead their forward pack effectively. The Warriors have won three of their last four games at Suncorp, showing capacity to challenge at this ground, although they have not beaten the Broncos there since 2018. Lineup changes favor the Warriors with Queensland State of Origin star Kurt Capewell returning, and key players like Rocco Berry and Edward Kosi coming back from injury, potentially strengthening their second-row and wings.
- Historically, the Warriors have struggled to defeat the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium, failing to win there since 2018. However, they have won three of their past four encounters at this venue in recent times, indicating a more competitive edge than in past years. Their last season meetings demonstrated balanced try counts, with Warriors scoring four tries and Broncos three in one match during Round 7 2025.
- The Warriors are missing Dallin Watene-Zelezniak due to an ankle injury sidelining him for four to six weeks, but have regained Moala Graham-Taufa and welcomed back Kurt Capewell. The Broncos have maintained a consistent lineup with no major changes reported ahead of the match, signaling squad stability. Both teams have deep reserves available on the interchange bench to manage any injuries during the match.
- The match day features a unique schedule with a double-header at Suncorp Stadium, which may influence atmosphere and pitch conditions slightly. Weather and travel fatigue do not appear to be major concerns as both teams are accustomed to playing at this venue. Referee Adam Gee, experienced in high-stakes games, will officiate, potentially ensuring a well-controlled match environment.
- The Broncos are motivated to secure their third consecutive home victory and maintain momentum in the competition. The Warriors are driven to rebound strongly from a recent unexpected loss to the Panthers and will look to leverage their recent good form at Suncorp Stadium. Both teams are placed closely in the standings (4th vs 5th), adding competitive tension for valuable table points.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brisbane Broncos: -186, New Zealand Warriors: 158, Draw: 2100 | Brisbane Broncos | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Brisbane Broncos -5.5: -125, New Zealand Warriors +5.5: -105 | Brisbane Broncos -5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 48.5: -115, Under 48.5: -115 | Over 48.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brisbane Broncos -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 48.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Broncos’ strong recent home performances and the Warriors’ mixed history against them at Suncorp, the Broncos hold a slight advantage. Expect a closely contested match with the Broncos edging out the Warriors by a narrow margin, leveraging home ground momentum and key player form.
Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 26 – 20 New Zealand Warriors