Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
Game Overview
The Cincinnati Reds host the New York Yankees in the final game of a three-game MLB series. Both teams are competitive with the Yankees standing first in the AL East and the Reds holding fourth in the NL Central. The game is expected to be close given their recent performances and balanced head-to-head dynamics.
Key Factors to Consider
The New York Yankees are currently leading the AL East with a 45-34 record, showing strong offensive and pitching performances. The Cincinnati Reds have a respectable 42-38 record, playing solid baseball especially at home. Both teams have demonstrated resilience and are evenly matched as indicated by their recent games.
Recent matchups between the Reds and Yankees have been competitive, with the series currently balanced. The Reds won the previous game on June 24, 2025, indicating momentum on their side. The overall head-to-head is roughly equal, supporting a tightly contested game.
There are no major injury reports affecting starting lineups for either team for this matchup, suggesting both teams will field their strongest squads.
The game is played at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, a venue favoring the Reds due to home advantage. Weather and other conditions are expected to be neutral without impacting gameplay significantly.
As the final game of the series, both teams are motivated to gain the upper hand. The Yankees aim to bolster their AL East lead, while the Reds seek to capitalize on home advantage to even the series and improve their standing in the NL Central.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds: 180, New York Yankees: -215
New York Yankees
β β β ββ 60%
Spread
Cincinnati Reds: 116, New York Yankees: -140
New York Yankees -1.5
β β β ββ 55%
Over/under
Over 9.5: 100, Under 9.5: -122
Under 9.5 runs
β β β ββ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
New York Yankees -15%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 9.5 9%
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 9.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The game is expected to be close with a slight edge to the New York Yankees due to stronger recent performances and better odds. However, the Cincinnati Reds' home field advantage and recent win suggest a high probability of a narrow Reds victory.
The New York Yankees host the Los Angeles Angels in the final game of a four-game set at Yankee Stadium. The Angels are seeking to complete a series sweep, having won the first three games, including a close 3-2 victory in the previous matchup. The Yankees, currently first in the AL East with a 42-31 record, face an Angels squad sitting third in the AL West at 36-37. The game features a pitching matchup between left-handers Carlos RodΓ³n (Yankees, 8-5, 3.01 ERA) and Tyler Anderson (Angels, 2-4, 4.44 ERA). Offensive highlights include Aaron Judge leading the Yankees with a .366 average, 26 home runs, and 60 RBIs, while the Angels' Nolan Schanuel and Taylor Ward provide solid production from the lineup. The Yankees have struggled offensively in recent games, managing only three hits in the last outing, but showed signs of life with homers from Jazz Chisholm and Cody Bellinger. An error late in the previous game cost the Yankees the lead, intensifying the importance of this game for home momentum[1][2][3][5].
Key Factors to Consider
The Yankees boast a stronger record and better pitching stats overall, with RodΓ³n posting a solid 3.01 ERA and an 8-5 record, indicating consistency in starting pitching. The Angels have had a tougher season with a 36-37 record and a 4.44 ERA from Anderson, who has struggled to find wins. Offensively, the Yankees have higher team batting average and power numbers, led by Aaron Judge. However, the Angelsβ recent hot streak sweeping this series shows momentum is in their favor[2][5].
In the season series so far, the Angels have dominated, winning the first three games against the Yankees, including a tight 3-2 win yesterday. This gives Los Angeles a psychological edge and confidence going into this final game[3][5].
There are no significant injury reports impacting starting lineups or pitchers for this matchup mentioned in latest available data, implying both teams are near full strength[1][5].
Home field advantage at Yankee Stadium favors the New York Yankees. Weather conditions and other external influences for this afternoon game appear typical with no major disruptions reported. The Yankees have the support of their home crowd to try to stop the series sweep[1][5].
The Yankees are motivated to avoid a series sweep at home and restore momentum in the tightly contested AL East. Conversely, the Angels aim to complete the sweep and capitalize on their current form, reinforcing their standing and confidence in the AL West race[3][5].
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Los Angeles Angels: 215, New York Yankees: -260
New York Yankees
β β β β β 75%
Spread
Los Angeles Angels: 1.5, New York Yankees: -1.5
New York Yankees -1.5
β β β ββ 65%
Over/under
Over: 9.5, Under: 9.5
Under 9.5
β β β ββ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
New York Yankees -0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 9.5 9%
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 9.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the pitching matchup favoring RodΓ³n, home field advantage, and Yankeesβ superior season performance, New York is favored to win narrowly. However, the Angelsβ momentum and recent head-to-head dominance mean a close contest is likely, possibly decided by strong bullpen work and timely hitting.
Predicted Score: New York Yankees 5 – Los Angeles Angels 3